Dreams Into Lightning 2

Will Turkey invoke NATO treaty?

Michael Totten thinks probably not.

Unless Assad keeps at it, that would be a big stretch. Most likely the Turks are just dialing up the pressure and hoping Assad will retire to Moscow. Who knows? It might even work. ...

Previous at DiL2: Turkey remembers it's in NATO.

Turkey Remembers It's In NATO

Zaman: Erdogan says Turkey may invoke NATO’s Article 5 over Syrian border fire. 'In a statement that may be interpreted as the harshest response yet to the escalating 13-month-old Syrian crisis, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the first time on Wednesday raised the possibility of calling on the NATO military alliance to protect Turkey's border against incursions by Syrian forces. ...'

Via Meadia on Turkey's nightmare scenario:

The last thing Turkey’s rulers want is for violence to erupt in refugee camps or elsewhere along the border with Syria. Turkey’s diverse population is sprinkled with minorities—Sunni, Alevi, Kurd. Neighbor is turning against neighbor in Syria’s increasingly sectarian conflict; will neighbor turn on neighbor just across the border in Turkey as well? ...

Berlinski on Turkey

A fed-up Claire Berlinski is tired of playing Cassandra for free.

Hey, what you're reading in the American news about this region, as far as I can see, is hogwash. And I don't know what the Israelis are thinking; they seem to be working themselves into a lather because Erdogan delivered some tub-thumping speech in Cairo (toward which the Muslim Brotherhood was distinctly cool: Welcome to the real world, Tayyip. Didn't do much good for Obama, either, and remember how I warned you: Turks aren't Arabs?) And Israelis, chill! That's just Tayyip. He flies in, makes a lot of noise, the ladies faint; he flies out, nothing changes. I promise. Just ask the Somalians. Or the Syrians. Or the Turks, for that matter.

The most astonishing thing of all is that everyone in the West--and Israel!--suddenly seems happy to accept two incompatible propositions simultaneously: 1) Erdogan defanged the military and 2) Turkey is a threat to Israel. No recognition that to the extent the former is true, the latter must be less true, so maybe it would be worth asking--which, exactly, is more true? ...

Go read the rest.

Israel Excluded from Obama's Counter-Terror Coalition

Barry Rubin:

Inasmuch as the plan for the group expresses any real-world purpose, it is to help the countries most targeted by terrorism. There are 30 founding members. Most of them—I’d say two-thirds—face no serious terrorist threat today. The Middle East members include Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.

Switzerland is a mmber; Pakistan and India, despite the former’s sponsoring terrorism agianst the latter, are members; Israel is not. ...

But there’s more. The United States is not leading this new organization alone. It has a co-director. That co-director is Turkey.

From the US Department of State:

As stated in President Obama’s National Counterterrorism Strategy, the U.S. is committed to strengthening the global counterterrorism (CT) architecture in a manner that complements and reinforces the CT work of existing multilateral bodies. The Administration’s signature initiative in this area is the Global Counterterrorism Forum (GCTF), which is intended to ensure the necessary international architecture is in place to address 21st century challenges.

The U.S. proposed the creation of the GCTF to address the evolving terrorist threat in a way that would bring enduring benefits by helping frontline countries and affected regions acquire the means to deal with threats they face. It is based on a recognition that the U.S. alone cannot eliminate every terrorist or terrorist organization. Rather, the international community must come together to assist countries as they work to confront the terrorist threat. ...

Structure: The GCTF will consist of a strategic-level Coordinating Committee, co-chaired initially by the United States and Turkey; five thematic and regional expert-driven working groups; and a small administrative unit that the U.S. will host for the first few years. ...