Dreams Into Lightning

Morning Report: 2008-11-16

Tough times in Tehran and New York.

Economic crisis: Iran regime feels the pinch. Strategy Page:

November 16, 2008: Economic problems are getting worse. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where much of Iran's foreign trade is handled, local banks are refusing to do business with the 10,000 Iranian trading firms based there. This has caused delays and cancellations of Iranian imports (over $9 billion worth from the UAE last year) and exports. This is being felt by the rule elite in Iran. There, the large extended families of the clerical leadership live the good life, and the goodies come in via the UAE. The sudden shortages of iPods, flat screen TVs, automobiles and bling in general, has been noticed in Iran, and is not appreciated.

The falling price of oil is producing another problem, national bankruptcy. The government admits that if the price of oil falls below $60 a barrel (which it has) and stays there (which it may, at least until the current recession is over), the nation will not be able to finance foreign trade (which is already having problems with increasingly effective U.S. moves to deny Iran access to the international banking system), or even the Iranian economy itself. The latter problem is largely self-inflicted, as president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad desperately borrows money to placate his few (heavily armed and fanatical) followers (about 20 percent of the population). The rest of the population has been in recession for years, and is getting increasingly angry over Ahmadinejad's mismanagement. Some 80 percent of Iran's exports are oil.

Dead tree. Belmont Club: 'At the core of the newspaper’s problems is a decline in the money stream. Their traditional, revenue-generating print vehicles are dying. And they haven’t figured out a way to make money off of the Internet. It’s not just a newspaper problem, but the big flagships of journalism have enormous fixed costs which combined with declining revenues are dragging them into the depths.'

TSOM: Obama to disappoint those who count on America. The Spirit of Man:

Expect 4 years of humiliation and sadness for the United States around the world. Four years in which even the US allies won't welcome and trust the United States leadership and judgment. Hussein O had told us he'll make the US look better around the world but thus far he's got every one worried especially those whose lives depend on America's global leadership.

Morning Report: 2008-11-14

Unmistakable signs of progress, and a change of focus, in the war on terror.

"The war is over and we won." So says Michael Yon thru Instapundit:

Michael Yon just phoned from Baghdad, and reports that things are much better than he had expected, and he had expected things to be good. "There's nothing going on. I'm with the 10th Mountain Division, and about half of the guys I'm with haven't fired their weapons on this tour and they've been here eight months. And the place we're at, South Baghdad, used to be one of the worst places in Iraq. And now there's nothing going on. I've been walking my feet off and haven't seen anything. I've been asking Iraqis, 'do you think the violence will kick up again,' but even the Iraqi journalists are sounding optimistic now and they're usually dour." There's a little bit of violence here and there, but nothing that's a threat to the general situation. Plus, not only the Iraqi Army, but even the National Police are well thought of by the populace. Training from U.S. toops has paid off, he says, in building a rapport.

He says the big problem everybody is talking about now is corruption. But hey, we have that here, too. He'll be heading to Afghanistan next week. "Afghanistan is a bad situation, but on Iraq I can't believe things have turned out so well."

Voters more optimistic than ever about war on terror, Rasmussen says. Another grim milestone for the MSM: Rasmussen reports:

Voter confidence in the War on Terror has reached its highest level ever, with 60% now saying the United States and its allies are winning, according to the first Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey on the issue since Election Day. ...

Just 15% of voters say the terrorists are winning the War on Terror, which is the lowest level seen in tracking history dating back to April 2004. Another 18% say neither side is winning.

BTW, the paragraph at my ellipsis discusses lower voter confidence in "bringing the troops home from Iraq" during Obama's term, in case you were wondering. But that's a separate issue from winning or losing the WOT; and see Instapundit's comment. Shmuel Rosner at Commentary says: 'With more than two months until inauguration day–if these trends continue–it’s possible that all Obama will have to do by the time he takes the oath is to promise a continuation of Bush’s winning policies in Iraq.'

Britain to send 2,000 more troops to Afghanistan ... per request. The Telegraph:

The Government is considering sending extra reinforcements in order to meet an anticipated request from Barack Obama, the US president-elect, after he takes office in January, according to the BBC.

US strikes in Pakistan to continue. Bill Roggio at The Standard:

The U.S. military has struck yet again inside Pakistan’s lawless tribal areas. U.S. Predators hit an al Qaeda safe house in the Taliban-controlled tribal agency of North Waziristan. Twelve people, including five “foreigners” were killed in the attack.
The strike occurred just one day after Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari protested the attacks. “It’s undermining my sovereignty and it’s not helping win the war on the hearts and minds of people,” Zardari said in an interview. On the same day, a spokesman for Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry described the attacks as a “violation of international law.”
But the United States is stuck between a rock and a hard place on this issue. On one hand, the attacks risk destabilizing Pakistan’s government and turn Pakistanis toward the extremists. On the other, U.S. intelligence strongly believes al Qaeda has regrouped in the tribal areas and is actively plotting strikes against the West, using men with Western passports.

Commentary. Tony Bey recommends Michael Rubin's article at Forbes arguing against the strategy of trying to "pry Syria away from Iran". Rubin:

It is tempting to believe that U.S. diplomacy can flip Syria. The last rejectionist Arab state, Syria is a lynchpin not only in the Arab-Israeli peace process, but also in efforts to resolve Iraqi insurgency and Lebanese instability. Alas, as audacious as Obama's hope might be, Syria cannot be flipped. It may be fashionable to blame Bush for the failure to seize a Damascus olive branch, but the real problem has less to do with any U.S. administration and much more to do with Arab history and political culture.

For more than a millennium, Damascus, Baghdad and Cairo have competed for the leadership of the Arab world. ...

Diplomats seeking to flip Assad are asking him to commit political suicide. Syria has less than 20 million citizens to Egypt's 80 million; for Damascus to work in the same coalition as Cairo is to subordinate itself to it. Absent the crisis of resistance, Assad has little reason to justify rule by his Alawite clan, a minority Shiite sect, among a disenfranchised Sunni Arab majority.

Go read it all.

Morning Report: 2008-11-11

This Veterans' Day post offers some tantalizing clues about the future Obama administration.

Obama on torture: "Upon review ...". Ace of Spades cites WSJ:

As a candidate, Mr. Obama said the CIA's interrogation program should adhere to the same rules that apply to the military, which would prohibit the use of techniques such as waterboarding. He has also said the program should be investigated.

Upon review, Mr. Obama may decide he wants to keep the road open in certain cases for the CIA to use techniques not approved by the military, but with much greater oversight.

Advisers caution that few decisions will be made until the team gets a better picture of how the Bush administration actually goes about gathering intelligence, including covert programs, and there could be a greater shift after a full review.

Ace adds: 'I say "appears" to be flopping because this has all the hallmarks of the other situations where he comes along in 8 hours and offers a "clarification".'

Robert Malley is baaack. Fernandez has the latest on the return of Robert Malley to the foreign policy arena.

Today, Arutz Sheva reported that the man who would not “play any role in the future” was dispatched by the President elect to the Middle East to outline Obama’s policy in the Middle East.

According to a report on Middle East Newsline, President-elect Barack Obama has dispatched his “senior foreign policy adviser”, Robert Malley to Egypt and Syria to outline Obama’s policy on the Middle East.

Malley reportedly relayed a promise from Obama that the United States would seek to enhance relations with Cairo and reconcile differences with Damascus.

“The tenor of the messages was that the Obama administration would take into greater account Egyptian and Syrian interests,” an aide to Malley was quoted as saying. The aide said Obama plans to launch a U.S. diplomatic initiative toward Syria. Malley met both Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad “to explain Obama’s agenda for the Middle East.”

Nowhere is the United States more deeply hated than Egypt and Syria. The interesting question is whether the “greater account” given to these countries by Malley will come at the expense of one of the few countries in the region in which the US is popular.

Briefly noted. Iran News Round Up by Ali Alfoneh, Ahmad Majidyar, and Michael Rubin; all links in Farsi except as noted.

Commentary. This morning's Commentary section is dedicated to the theme of "ODS watch". First, here's some wisdom from last week's post by ShrinkWrapped:

The idea that Barack Obama's election is going to usher in the long, dark night of fascism in America is troubling. I have no doubt that there are groups and individuals on the far left who would like nothing more than to form the nidus of an American brown shirted militia, but we are a very long way away from such an eventuality.

Now leading the rabid paranoid pack is Rep. Paul Broun (R-Georgia), one of the crowd Charles at LGF aptly calls black helicopter Republicans

“That’s exactly what Hitler did in Nazi Germany and it’s exactly what the Soviet Union did,” Broun said. “When he’s proposing to have a national security force that’s answering to him, that is as strong as the U.S. military, he’s showing me signs of being Marxist.” ...

“We can’t be lulled into complacency,” Broun said. “You have to remember that Adolf Hitler was elected in a democratic Germany. I’m not comparing him to Adolf Hitler. What I’m saying is there is the potential.”

There are plenty of reasons to question Obama’s offhanded campaign promise to create a civilian force as powerful and well-funded as the US military, but there’s really no need to Godwin ourselves out before the guy even takes office.

And what would a tinfoil-hat conspiracy theory be without its truthers?

AUSTIN — State Board of Education member Cynthia Dunbar isn't backing down from her claim that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is plotting with terrorists to attack the U.S.

I shouldn't have to say this, but apparently it needs to be said: We can criticize Obama all we want, and I expect to do plenty of it. But there's no need to try to outdo the left-wingnuts with a conservative "Obama derangement syndrome". Heck, the man hasn't even taken office yet. It's too a little too early to declare a national holiday - or an apocalypse.

Morning Report: 2008-11-06

Diplomats prepare for a changing of the guard, while West Asia remains volatile.

Rice to Middle East in probable swan song. Arutz Sheva: 'U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice returns to the region on Thursday for her 19th, and perhaps final, visit – part of the American push to extract an agreement for the establishment of a new Arab state within Israel's borders. Rice is expected to meet with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas Thursday afternoon in Jerusalem. Rice will also meet with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Likud party chairman and Opposition Leader Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, who are both strong candidates to become the next prime minister, also on Thursday afternoon in Jerusalem. ...' Also from A7, Condi's opposite number in Israel warned Obama against talking to Iran: 'Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni expressed her opposition to United States President-elect Barack Obama's stated willingness to dialogue with Iran in an interview on Voice of Israel government radio Thursday morning. She explained, "We live in a neighborhood in which sometimes dialogue – in a situation where you have brought sanctions, and you then shift to dialogue – is liable to be interpreted as weakness."'

Suicide bomber strikes at tribal meeting in Bajaur, northwest Pakistan. Long War Journal:

A suicide bomber struck at a tribal meeting in the insurgency-wracked agency of Bajaur in Pakistan's northwest. Eight members of the Salarzai tribe were killed and more than 45 were wounded after a suicide bomber detonated in the middle of a tribal meeting.

The Salarzai tribe has organized a militia to oppose the presence of the Taliban in their tribal areas in Bajaur. Tribal leaders claim to have raised more than 10,000 fighters to form a lashkar, or tribal militia. The Salarzai have been burning the homes of Taliban members and providing security for the region.

The Pakistani military has been battling the Taliban in Bajaur since August. The tribal area is a known command and control hub for al Qaeda's operations in northeastern Afghanistan. The military has relied on airstrikes and artillery barrages to dislodge the Taliban from fortified positions.

Pakistani officials claim to have struck a crippling blow to the Taliban. General Tariq Khan, the Inspector General of the paramilitary Frontier Corps claimed more than 1,500 Taliban and foreign fighters have been killed in Bajaur since the operation began. Another 950 "militants," including more than 300 are Uzbek, Tajik, Nuristani, Afghani and Hazara, have been captured. Only 42 paramilitary troops have been killed and 174 wounded, according to the general.

The government has courted the tribes in an effort to gain local support. But the groups that have joined the effort to fight the Taliban are marginal players in the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province. ...

Read the rest of Bill Roggio's post at the link.

Learning from experience in Afghanistan. Small Wars Journal:

This Slate article is an excellent example of learning from the past about the part of counterinsurgency most of us understand least well: the economic and governance lines of operation.

Both candidates for the U.S. presidency pledged to make Afghanistan a top priority. The war there now tops the news on a daily basis with tales of the devastating hardships of the Afghan people and the deaths of Afghans and NATO soldiers. The untold story is that Afghanistan was well on its way to stability in 2004. It is essential that President Obama understands why the nation slipped into chaos. The challenge now is to win the peace...

Follow the link for the rest of Clare Lockhart's article.

Briefly noted. Byron York comments on the true meaning of "losers".

Commentary. No brilliant insights on this morning's items; I'll just offer my thoughts on the election, and I'll keep 'em brief.

As you know from reading this journal, I was rooting for McCain, and I've had very serious misgivings about Obama for a number of reasons. But the American people have chosen Barack Obama to be their next President, so out of respect for my nation, its people, and the democratic process I will give President Obama a fair chance.

You probably also know that I'm a social liberal. I vote Republican because al-Qaeda and the Taliban and the Iranian regime aren't social liberals, and those SOBs are trying to kill us. One hope that I hold for the incoming Democratic government is that the Democrats, once fully in charge of the reins of power, will appreciate the seriousness of the threat outside our borders, and understand that the threat is at its core a threat to America's finest liberal traditions. I won't bore you here with another long essay on power and responsibility, but I think you get the idea.

I've no plans to quit blogging here at DiL any time soon. Come next January, it'll be my first time blogging under a Democratic administration. Should be interesting.

Morning Report: 2008-11-05

Americans elect Obama. CNN: 'Sen. John McCain on Tuesday urged all Americans to join him in congratulating Sen. Barack Obama on his projected victory in the presidential election.'

Mosul mayor meets with Iraqi National Police commander to discuss security. MNF-Iraq: 'The Mosul mayor, Ameer Jihad, and Maj. Gen. Mohammed of the 3rd National Police Division met Nov. 3, to discuss common issues about municipal services concerns and joint efforts in the city. During a meeting and visit through the city, the NPs agreed to use engineer assets to assist with traffic flow in the city and also to conduct joint missions with the Iraqi Police.'

Evin hardships. From BameAzadi - English: 'According to the received news on Evin prison, at the night of November 2, there was a conflict and scuffle between prisoners and authorities of prison in various sections of the prison. Although the winter is coming and the weather of Evin which is located in mountainside in northwest of Tehran, is so cold but authorities of Prison took evil advantage of this matter to annoy and torture political prisoners, they turned off all heaters of prison and made a very cold place for prisoners. According to the words of some prisoners; the intensity of cold is such that bodies of some prisoners like Ayatollah Kazemeini Boroujerdi, who was affected by physical weakness because of previous pressures and tortures, have been numbed and are unable to move. That night the prisoners set fire to their blankets because of cold and showed their protest to authorities in this way.' Persian language page for BeA is here.

Morning Report: 2008-10-17

Mohammed Fadhil: Obama undermines US-Iraq ties. Mohammed of Iraq the Model:

The status of forces agreement (SOFA) can be regarded as the crown jewel of the U.S.-led change in Iraq. It’s not an overstatement to say that it represents an aspect of victory in this war. By victory I mean that it will mark the beginning of a time in which Iraq is officially a partner of the U.S., as it will join Iraq and the U.S. in a new relationship that serves the national interests of both countries. Above all, it will be a major boost for the effort in the war on terror as it will guarantee that Iraq will not fall prey to extremists. It will ensure that Iraq becomes a barrier against the aspirations of extremists, not a vessel that conveys them. In my opinion this treaty will set the foundations for a new Middle East ripe for transformation and for joining the free world. For these reasons and for others that we’re still trying to understand, this treaty has been receiving fire from virtually all directions. ...

While Iraqi and American negotiators and decision makers are doing what they can to finalize the agreement and reach a compromise on disputed issues, we find that everyone outside the negotiations is trying to put the stick in the wheel. But those are mostly parties that don’t want any good for Iraq and consider America a malicious intruder at best and a blood enemy at worst. What I find surprising is that someone from America is trying to obstruct the treaty. Believe it or not, there’s actually a guy who has no executive authority whatsoever — except in opinion polls — who is trying to bypass the actual top diplomats of the United States and undermine their negotiation efforts with a friendly state, at a time of war.

Read the whole post at Pajamas Media. Here's more on Obama's attempt to turn Iraqi/US negotiations to his own advanage:

Some of the specifics of the conversations remain the subject of dispute. Iraqi leaders purported to The Times that Mr. Obama urged Baghdad to delay an agreement with Mr. Bush until next year when a new president will be in office - a charge the Democratic campaign denies.

Iranians tried to bribe Iraqi officials. MNF-Iraq: 'Commander, Multi-National Force-Iraq (MNF-I) Gen. Ray Odierno recently stated that current intelligence indicates Iranian officials intend to attempt to bribe Iraqi officials to prevent passage of the SOFA Agreement. MNF-I further clarified that this no way infers that any Iraqi governmental officials accepted bribes. "The Council of Representative members work hard to represent and serve the Iraqi people performing an honorable, critical role in building the new Iraq," stated MNF-I Spokesman Rear Adm. Patrick Driscoll.'

Morning Report: 2008-10-16

McCain-Obama debate. John Podhoretz at Commentary:

The general feeling on the right side of the blogosphere is that this was McCain’s best debate and he did himself a lot of good. I think people on the Right were so relieved that the debate finally turned to matters of ideological and partisan moment — abortion, ACORN, Ayers, trade, spending — that, perhaps for the first time in his political career, they graded him on a curve. The problem, in my view, is that the shorthand in which McCain spoke about these matters made them comprehensible only to those of us who are already schooled in them. In almost every case, Obama answered McCain’s shorthand with longhand — with detailed, even long-winded answers that gave the distinct impression he was more in command of the details of these charges than the man who was trying to go after him on them.

We’re not the audience for these debates. Undecided voters are ...

Also from Commentary, Jennifer Rubin has more conservative reaction. National Review's Byron York has some thoughts on five words spoken by McCain. At The Corner, he adds:

After it ended, I talked to both a McCain and an Obama aide who had been deeply involved in debate prep, to see how things looked through their eyes. There were two striking things about talking to the Obama aide. One was the degree to which they thought Obama won on a "nonverbal" basis. "The first huge impression was visual," the aide told me. "[McCain] looked angry, he looked frustrated. It was something that I think people reacted to quite viscerally. People are going to remember the look on John McCain's face."

The second striking thing was the degree to which Obama expected everything McCain was going to say — down to the very word ...

Commentary. Gay Patriot West wonders about the meanness of the Left's rhetoric:

What is it that has made the left so unhinged? Why do they rather revile us than engage us on the plain of ideas?

And do so, while they accuse us of being narrow-minded hate-mongers? And claim to be smarter and better educated. If they’re so well-read and smart, shouldn’t it then be easy for them to dismiss our ideas with rational argument?

It's safe to say that those are rhetorical questions.

Morning Report: 2008-10-12

Not guilty!

North Korea is magically rehabilitated. Counterterrorism Blog:

The Bush Administration announced today that North Korea has agreed to all demands for inspection of its nuclear facilities, enabling the U.S. to remove North Korea from the list of "state sponsors of terrorism." The removal is only "provisional," in that North Korea would return to the list if it fails to comply with the inspections. ...

Today's decision is already drawing criticism from the ranking Republican on the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and might also draw criticism from leading Democrats on that committee who expressed their skepticism this year of North Korea's intentions. UPDATE: But Congress is powerless to block the removal, because the Administration sent the 45-day notice on June 26, according to Rep. Ros-Lehtinen's office. Congress can and, I assume, will conduct oversight hearings on North Korea's compliance with the inspection regime.

Shmuel Rosner at Commentary: 'One thing we now know for certain: the American list of state sponsors of terrorism has no moral authority. It is merely a tool with which to pressure countries into accepting deals with the U.S. Case in point: North Korea is no less “sponsor of terrorism” today than it was two days ago. Still, the US has decided it will be removed from the list.'

Mark Steyn found "innocent". Canada's Mark Steyn may have something to celebrate this Thanksgiving Day, but he's not getting too excited. From PJM, here's Kathy Shaidle of Five Feet of Fury:

On October 10, 2008, mid-afternoon on the Friday before a long weekend, with reporters preoccupied with a Canadian federal election only days away, the BCHRT issued its ruling on the case against Steyn and Maclean’s: on the charge of “exposing the complainants to hatred or contempt based on their religion” — not guilty.

Andrew Coyne of MacLean's explains:

... be clear on this: it is no victory to be told by a shadowy government agency that you will be permitted to publish. This ruling only preserves the tribunal from utterly discrediting itself, and as such keeps alive the possibility that some other complainant can drag Maclean’s or any other media organization through yet another travesty half-a-continent away, at great expense of time and money. It also prevents Maclean’s from appealing the tribunal’s decision to an actual court, wherein it might have had the relevant section of the B.C. human rights laws thrown out on constitutional grounds. (Or does it? Can you appeal when you win?)

By your command. Strategy Page:

... The army uses NCOs trained specifically for UAV operation. The army has no operator shortage. The air force has recently made UAV operator a career field, not a temporary assignment (as it had been for years). The air force is also beginning to train non-pilot officers to be UAV operators, and is under pressure (both from within, and outside, the air force) to allow NCOs to be career UAV operators.

A typical Predator crew consists of several pilots and sensor operators. That's because the Predator stays in the air for so long, more than one crew is often used for each sortie. Crew shortages sometimes result in Predators being brought back to base before their fuel is used up.

There is also help on the way from the developers of flight control software. Many UAVs can fly quite well without any pilot at all. This is basically an adaptation of "automatic pilot" systems (which are now mostly software and sensors) that are now capable of doing practically all the flying for commercial aircraft. So it was no big jump to install these systems in UAVs and let them go cylon. Well, OK, not completely robotic, and certainly not self-aware. But Global Hawk UAVs are sent across the oceans on automatic (including take-offs and landings. Using more of these systems for Predator and Reaper, eliminates a lot of the human error problems. This solution has been a trend in aircraft and automobile design for over two decades.

Commentary. The Redhunter contemplates two Americas:

For a number of years liberals have told us that we should elect their candidates because they are "smarter" than conservatives. This usually, but not always, takes the form of citing university degrees. They tend to denigrate conservatives, most famously Ronald Reagan and George W Bush as "stupid" and "anti-intellectual.

We see this now with their characterizations of Senator Barack Obama and Governor Sarah Palin.

One argument that Obama's followers make as to why we should elect him is that he was once president of the Harvard Law Review, and later taught constitutional law at the University of Chicago Law School. Palin, on the other hand, is mocked as a rube who "only" has a Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism from the University of Idaho.

Imagine, if you will, an audience that consists of two groups of people: One, the faculty of Harvard University. The other, Americans from the small towns of the mid-west ...

Go to the link for excerpts from a famous speech, and for Tom's thoughts on how the "two Americas" would respond.

These days I find myself thinking about a man whose works I've not yet read, but who was one of my mother's heroes: Eric Hoffer.

Hoffer drew confidence and inspiration from his modest roots and working-class surroundings, seeing in it vast human potential. In a letter to Margaret Anderson in 1941, he wrote:

My writing is done in railroad yards while waiting for a freight,
in the fields while waiting for a truck, and at noon after lunch.
Towns are too distracting.

Hoffer also took solace in being an outcast, believing that the outcasts have always been the pioneers of society. He did not consider himself an "intellectual", and scorned the term as descriptive of the allegedly anti-American academics of the West. He believed academics craved power but were denied it in the democratic countries of the West (though not in totalitarian countries, which Hoffer understood to be an intellectual's dream). Instead, Hoffer believed academics chose to bite the hand that fed them in their quest for power and influence.

I think Mom would have liked Sarah Palin, too: like her, a strong woman from a rural northern state, not "intellectual" but intelligent, unafraid of guns or of speaking her mind. I think we are living to see a time when the power of the intellectual elites is fading, and the thinkers among the ordinary people - those who still understand basic values like duty, honor, country - may come to find their rightful recognition at last.

Morning Report: 2008-10-05

Bearish on Russia?

Debka: Russian live-fire missile exercise near Alaska. Debka:

Not since 1984, just before the fall of the Soviet Union, has Russia ventured to launch dozens of nuclear bombers for an exercise in which Tu-95 Bear bombers will fire live cruise missiles. Exercise Stability 2008 will take place Oct.-6-12 over sub-Arctic Russia uncomfortably close to the US state of Alaska, and Belarus.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the exercise is part of a month-long war game described by Russian air force spokesman Col. Vladimir Drik as “practicing the strategic deployment of the armed forces including the nuclear triad.”

As part of the exercise, our sources reported exclusively on Oct. 1, that Russian ships armed with nuclear missiles will dock at Syrian ports Oct. 8, on the eve of Yom Kippur, before continuing to the Caribbean for joint maneuvers with Venezuela.

More than 60,000 troops and 1.500 tanks and APCs, as well as land-based and submarine-launched nuclear missiles, were tested in the first phase of the war games.

(“Nuclear triad” refers to three tiers of a national nuclear arsenal, usually strategic bombers armed with bombs or missiles, land-based missiles and ballistic missile submarines. These weapons must have a first- or second-strike capability.)

Col. Drik stressed that the Tu-95 and Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bombers will “carry their maximum combat payload and fire all the cruise missiles on board.” Also taking part in the air force exercise are Tu-22M3 Backfire strategic bombers, air superiority fighters, interceptors and aerial tankers.

The locations of the war games were deliberately chosen to underline three messages from Moscow to Washington:

1. Russian leaders are willing to brandish their nuclear strength in America’s face - to the north (Arctic) and south (Caribbean) – to challenge America’s position as the world’s No. 1 superpower.

2. Russia is powerful and rich enough to rise above the shockwaves rocking the world’s financial markets while carrying on developing its military muscle and expanding its spheres of influence.

3. By docking at the Syrian port of Tartus, the Peter the Great nuclear missile cruiser is Moscow’s marker on the Mediterranean to betoken the end of US Sixth Fleet’s sway. Last week, the Russian Navy united its Black Sea and Mediterranean fleet commands.

The Telegraph:

Over 60,000 troops and 1,500 tanks and armoured personnel carriers have taken part in the first fortnight of exercises. Land-based and submarine launched nuclear missiles have also been tested. Once the bombers have fired their cruise missiles next week, Russia will have carried out its first near-simultaneous test launches of all elements of its nuclear triad since the Cold War.

The has worried military observers critical of the Kremlin, who say the scope and character of the exercises does not gel with official explanations that they are designed to train the country's armed forces in counter-terrorism and military defence.

Pavel Felgenhauer, a respected military analyst, says the geographical reach of the exercises suggests that they are intended to simulate a nuclear war with the United States.

"Russia is preparing for the eventuality of a nuclear war," he said. "These are the most elaborate war games for 20 years and is clear evidence that we are returning to the Cold War."

Stratfor: 'Russia’s armed forces on Sept. 22 began conducting the “Stability-2008” strategic command staff exercises, Itar-Tass reported, citing the Russian Defense Ministry press service. The exercises are taking place under the command of Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov and will last until Oct. 21. Serdyukov said the exercises will be conducted in various areas of Russia and Belarus, with the cooperation of the Belarusian Defense Ministry.' More in Commentary section, below.

Helga and the cowboy. Bill Whittle has a terrific piece on an interview with an anti-islamist activist in Europe. He turns the America up to eleven, and then they get serious and learn why the hat - and the mask - cannot be taken off. I'm not going to try to explain - just read it.

Commentary. A post at the Small Wars Journal blog cites an article by Murray Feshbach in the Washington Post, which avers:

Predictions that Russia will again become powerful, rich and influential ignore some simply devastating problems at home that block any march to power. Sure, Russia's army could take tiny Georgia. But Putin's military is still in tatters, armed with rusting weaponry and staffed with indifferent recruits. Meanwhile, a declining population is robbing the military of a new generation of soldiers. Russia's economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil. And, worst of all, it's facing a public health crisis that verges on the catastrophic.

The Telegraph article quoted above seems to back up this assessment of Russia's military strength: 'Not everyone is convinced as the Kremlin appears to be that Russia will soon be as militarily competitive as it was in the Cold War. Despite some improvements, the armed forces – and especially the air force and navy – are still in woeful condition and would be incapable of challenging a medium-sized European country in a conventional war, analysts say.'

Morning Report: 2008-10-03

Morning Report is going to skip the Palin/Biden debate. In other news ...

Debka: US warning to Syria on Lebanon. Debka:

Washington accompanied this warning to Damascus, DEBKAfile has learned, with its first explicit threat of military intervention to aid Lebanon should Syria go through with its planned incursion of the North.

The warning, according to our sources, was delivered on Sept. 28 by secretary of state Condoleezza Rice to the Syrian foreign minister Walid Mualem whom she invited for an urgent meeting in New York. The day after they met, Mualem was handed a second warning by undersecretary of state David Welch, who specified precisely which Syrian movements the US government would deem crossing the Lebanese border.
The harsh words from the top two American diplomats left the Syrian minister with little option but to promise there would be no Syrian incursion. However, in a number of subsequent interviews, Mualem claimed his talks with the two American officials focused on Washington’s support for the indirect talks between Jerusalem and Damascus, a tale made of whole cloth.

In the week since Washington warned Damascus off, nothing has changed in the Syrian military deployment on the Lebanese, our military sources confirm.

Debka previously reported that 'Damascus is pressing forward with its plan to occupy Greater Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city and port, DEBKAfile's military sources report. To this end, 10,000 Syrian commando troops have massed at Abboudieh on the Lebanese border ready to follow an advance force which occupied seven villages around the northern city earlier [in September] ...'.

Coalition forces nab 18 AQI suspects. MNF-Iraq: 'BAGHDAD – Coalition forces captured one wanted man and detained 17 additional suspects during operations to degrade the al-Qaeda in Iraq terrorist network throughout the country Thursday and Friday. Operations in Kirkuk Thursday netted four suspects believed to be associated with a regional AQI “emir.” An operation in the vicinity of Bayji, about 160 km south of Mosul, resulted in the capture of one wanted man assessed to be a local military “emir” for a terrorist organization associated with AQI. Two additional suspected terrorists were also detained during the operation. ...'

The dark hole of Gohardasht. Shir-o Khorshid Forever:

In the Name of Prosperity of Iran

It has been a long time since Mr. Mansour Radpour was taken to Section 1 of the Gohardasht Prison (Room 2), this section is also known as the “dark hole” where the prison is not allowed any time of outside contact including phone privileges or visitation.

I was also held in Section 1 of the Prison close to two months and know very well the types of torture Mr. Radpour is being subjected to. The guards in this section only “speak” to prisoners with their plastic and electrical baton’s. The prison is under 24 hour surveillance through a red camera in his cell. Also the prisoners are held with handcuffs at all times and sometimes their feet are cuffed as well.

In the Common ward of this section there are about 15-20 people who suffer from mental illnesses as well as infectious illnesses. These are prisoners who cannot be controlled and most prisoners prefer solitary cells to being in the same common ward as them.

Isn’t it time for the Iranian people and the human rights activists to force the officials of Gohardasht (Rajai Shahr) Prison to close the doors of this “dark hole” forever? The dark hole which is used to break down political prisoners and make them give up? ...

Long Live Iran Always
Behrouz Javid Tehrani
The last remaining political prisoner from July 1999 pro-democracy student demonstrations
Gohardasht (Rajai Shahr) Prison

Published by Human Rights and Democracy Activists in Iran

Translated by: Sayeh Hassan

Go to the link for full details.

A visit to the Rebbe. Van at Kesher Talk pays a Rosh haShanah visit to the last Lubavitcher Rebbe:

To think: who, truly, do I care about and want to mention in a written prayer, in this mystical time and place?

I wrote my letter, wishing for health and happiness, writing names in Hebrew and using mothers' names when I knew them. My son led the list, along with my brother, my late mother (Shirli bat Chava, which sounded close enough to Shirley daughter of Eva), and others who had suggested the visit, and those who I simply wished all good things for.

Afterward, the group from Stamford changed into plastic shoes and walked on a fenced-in path under grey skies to the building that had the tomb of the Rebbe and his father-in-law. Separate entrances for men and women separated people, although there was nothing like a mehitzah. I read Psalms 50, corresponding to my age, and then very quietly read my letter. People stood around a square pit, or tank, about 15 feet on each side, into which they placed their letters. I saw thousands of pieces of paper, mostly in Hebrew, nestled together in front of the headstones.

Go read it all.

Commentary. I never take Debka's reporting too seriously, but I'm encouraged by the claim that Washington is taking a strong stand on Lebanon.