Dreams Into Lightning 2

Morning Report: 2012-07-05

Mexico: WRM on Peña Nieto's path forward. Via Meadia: 'Enrique Peña Nieto’s victory in this week’s presidential election in Mexico is a big one for Mexico, and not only because it means the return of his Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) to power. It also means new (or perhaps a return to the old, pre-Calderón) policies towards the country’s out-of-control drug trade. ...'

Iraq: Suicide bomber kills 3 in Mosul. 'At least three people were killed and 15 wounded on Thursday when a suicide bomber blew himself up in a barber's shop popular with police in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, police and hospital sources said. ...'

Interview: MJT and Rick Francona on Middle East, Bosnia. Michael Totten interviews Rick Francona on the occasion of Francona's new book 'Chasing Demons: My Hunt for War Criminals in Bosnia'.

MJT: Did you learn anything in Bosnia that applies to the Middle East?

Rick Francona: Perhaps it’s the other way around. When I arrived in Bosnia with no real background in the Balkans other than the briefings on the mission and operation, I felt really unprepared. After I was there a few days, I noticed a lot of similarities in the basic divisions in the population. In Bosnia, the major division of course was between the Orthodox Serbs and the Muslim Bosniaks, sort of like in Lebanon, although without nearly as many factions.

As in the Middle East, I realized that once someone on either side injects religion into the argument, you might as well stop talking. ...

Morning Report: 2012-07-02

Mexico: Peña Nieto ahead by 6 percentage points. 'Millions of Mexicans voted Sunday to restore to power a once-authoritarian party they dumped 12 years ago, according to preliminary results, while also delivering a harsh rebuke to a government that advanced democratic rule but saw the country plunge into grisly violence. In an initial, partial count released just before midnight, the federal election commission said Enrique Peña Nieto, the telegenic candidate for the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, was winning about 38% of the vote. He was leading his nearest competitor, leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, by about 6 percentage points. ...'

Israel: Energy wealth changing picture. Via Meadia:

Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir famously lamented that Moses led the children of Israel for forty years of wandering in the desert until he found the only place in the Middle East where there wasn’t any oil.

But could Moses have been smarter than believed? Apparently the Canadians and the Russians think so, as both countries are moving to step up energy relations with a tiny nation whose total energy reserves some experts now think could rival or even surpass the fabled oil wealth of Saudi Arabia.

Actual production is still miniscule, but evidence is accumulating that the Promised Land, from a natural resource point of view, could be an El Dorado: inch for inch the most valuable and energy rich country anywhere in the world. If this turns out to be true, a lot of things are going to change, and some of those changes are already underway.

Israel and Canada have just signed an agreement to cooperate on the exploration and development of what, apparently, could be vast shale oil reserves beneath the Jewish state.

The prospect of huge oil reserves in Israel comes on top of the recent news about large natural gas discoveries off the coast that have been increasingly attracting attention and investor interest. The apparent gas riches have also been attracting international trouble. ...

Morning Report: 2012-06-27

Iraq: Bombs target Shi'a, kill 7 in Baghdad. 'Bombs planted around a Shi'ite politician's house killed seven people and wounded 21 others in Baghdad on Wednesday, police said, the latest in a string of attacks which have raised fears of a return to widespread sectarian violence. Unknown militants carried out the attack in the al-Wahda district in the south of the Iraqi capital, police said. It was not immediately clear if the politician was one of the victims. ...'

Mexico: Peña Nieto holds lead. 'Mexican presidential front-runner Enrique Pena Nieto goes into Sunday's election with a wide lead over his rivals, opinion polls showed on Wednesday as campaigning wraps up, putting him on track to return the party that ruled for much of the last century to power....'

US / Russia / Israel: Obama's platitudes, Putin's partnership. Breitbart:

Israel rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin and a host of Russian dignitaries this week, showing a desire by both parties to repair strained ties between the two countries. Israel has good reason to be open to strengthening its relationship with Russia. A long series of diplomatic failures in regard to the “Arab Spring” by the Obama administration, and a conspicuous lack of a visit to Israel since Obama’s inauguration, have placed Israel in an increasingly tenuous and isolated position as America’s influence wanes in the region. It is a strategic vacuum that Putin would like to fill.

And while President Obama made Prime Minister Netanyahu come and go through a White House side door and would not deign to have a meal with him, President Putin came to Bibi’s door bearing gifts.

Foremost on the minds of Israelis during Putin’s visit were the Iranian nuclear program and the ever widening sphere of the Syrian civil war. And though no specific agreements were reached on these issues, President Putin did address them, saying, "From my experience, one must think about the consequences of an act before doing it. Look what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. With regard to Syria, one must think carefully whether the opposition that will rise to power will be what the West wants it to be, or whether it will end up being totally the opposite." Regarding Israel in particular he said, "The region in which Israel sits greatly influences the feelings of the entire international community. Russia has a national interest in assuring peace and tranquility for Israel."

While Putin’s words will be considered by many to be empty platitudes on par with Obama’s election year rhetoric, nothing says commitment like investment. President Putin’s gifts came in the form of a raft of Russian dignitaries and businessmen, seeking economic alliances in a variety of areas. ...