Dreams Into Lightning 2

Morning Report: 2012-08-19

USA: Family Research Council shooter politically motivated. CNN: '[Floyd Lee Corkins II], 28, was reportedly a volunteer at an organization in Washington serving the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender communities. CNN was unable to discern a known job or source of income for Corkin and he did not appear to leave a significant online presence. He had no significant criminal record. But a court filing Wednesday suggests that Corkins may have had something else -- an ideology. And those political leanings could have been behind the Tuesday morning shooting at the Family Research Council, a conservative Christian policy group. ...'

Afghanistan / USA: Panetta wants answers from Karzai. Fox: 'Defense Secretary Leon Panetta called Afghan President Hamid Karzai on Saturday to discuss the rising number of "insider" attacks in which Afghan security forces have turned their guns on American and other coalition troops. ...'

Iraq: Bomb injures Sunni cleric. Stratfor reports that Sheikh Mahdi al-Sumaidaie was injured in a Baghdad bombing that killed one of his bodyguards.

Morning Report: 2012-08-02

Lebanon: Annan quits as Syrian peace envoy. NOW Lebanon: 'Kofi Annan is quitting as UN-Arab League envoy for Syria after battling to persuade President Bashar al-Assad to accept a peace plan, the UN said Thursday. UN leader Ban Ki-moon announced "with deep regret," that Annan had tendered his resignation, as the Syrian civil war spiraled further out of control. ...'

Iraq: Kurdistan threatens to halt oil exports. Reuters: 'Iraq's Kurdistan region said its planned resumption of oil exports may last only to August 31 if the central government does not pay arrears to foreign companies, meaning the rise in Iraq's overall shipments to world markets could be brief. The semi-autonomous region said on Wednesday it would restart exports this week in a bid to end the payments dispute with Baghdad. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) says the central government has withheld payment of $1.5 billion. Natural Resources Minister Ashti Hawrami gave the end-August deadline in a letter posted on the KRG's website and addressed to oil companies DNO, Genel Energy and Kar Group. ...'

Iraq: Turkish visit to Kurdistan violates sovereignty. Meanwhile, Stratfor reports that a Baghdad spokesman complained that a recent visit to Kirkuk by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu constituted a serious breach of Iraqi government sovereignty.

Morning Report: 2012-07-25

Syria: Assad's future. Yesterday, Morning Report posted thoughts from Michael Totten and Lee Smith. They argued that "the best reason ... to get rid of Assad while we can is the grim prospect of what will happen if he wins" (Totten) and that "it’s time for the administration finally to show a killer instinct" by denying a fugitive regime even the comfort of a rump state (Smith). Today, Daniel P. Goldman, long known as "Spengler", writes at Gatestone citing a second piece from Lee Smith. Smith argues that

... a large part of strategy is prioritizing threats, and right now the major issue in the region is Iran: Anything that weakens the Iranians is a net gain. There is time enough in the Middle East to deal with other threats, which a post-Assad Syria may well become. The most pressing concern is a scenario in which Assad is camped out on the Mediterranean coast, still allied with Iran and serving as a link to Hezbollah. An Alawite statelet is an outcome that the Obama Administration should seek to prevent.

Goldman isn't so sure: "Why not deal with Iran the way we need to deal with Iran (neutralize its WMD capacity with air strikes, commando operations, cyberwar, or whatever it takes), and deal with Syria as Syria? ..." Read the rest at the link.

Iraq: Officials warned of kidnapping attempts. Al-Monitor: 'Representatives from al-Sahwa (“the Awakening”) have called on security officials in the province of Diyala to provide protection to the province’s judges and lawyers, and to strengthen security procedures in government prisons and detention centers. The request came in light of intelligence that was received regarding al-Qaeda’s intention to attack or kidnap judiciary personnel to bargain for the release of detained al-Qaeda leaders. ...' Translated from al-Hayat.

Europe / Terrorism: EU won't blacklist Hezbollah. Michael Totten: 'After a suicide-bomber killed five Israeli tourists in Bulgaria, the Israelis are (again) asking the European Union to blacklist Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. Europe (again) refuses to do so. Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis, the foreign minister of Cyprus just 30 minutes off Lebanon’s coast, says Europe would consider adding Hezbollah to the list of banned terrorist organization “if there were tangible evidence of Hezbollah engaging in acts of terror.” ...'

Morning Report: 2012-07-15

The course of human events in Mali, Iraq, Europe, and USA.

Mali: NMLA drops separatist goal. 'Malian rebel group the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad has abandoned its goal of creating a separate state in northern Mali, according to a statement from the group, Reuters reported ...'

Iraq: Baghdad complains about Kurdish exports to Turkey. As Morning Report noted Friday, Turkey has started importing oil from Iraqi Kurdistan, a.k.a. "northern Iraq". The central Iraqi government in Baghdad is not happy about this: 'Iraq said on Sunday that oil exports from Kurdistan to Turkey by truck were "illegal", warning Ankara that such trade with the autonomous region could damage its relations with the central government in Baghdad. ... "Exporting oil from Kurdistan to Turkey is illegal and illegitimate," Iraq government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said in a statement.' So, yes, you read that right: the complaint is that Kurdistan is getting too friendly with Turkey. Strange times indeed.

Sarah Palin: Big government vs. big freedom. Breitbart:

Sarah Palin boldly, clearly and sharply articulated the stakes in the 2012 election on Saturday when she addressed a "Patriots in the Park" Tea Party event. The event took place in Michigan and was sponsored by the Michigan branch of Americans for Prosperity and the Willow Run Tea Party Caucus.
“2012 is a race between the party of big government and the party of big freedom,” Palin said, contrasting the Republican party's vision with that of President Barack Obama's.
In reference to Obama and his policies, Palin said there was something “wrong with someone” who would want to fundamentally transform a country that was good and strong.
"If that’s what you call hope, then we want change,” Palin said.
Palin dubbed Obama’s economic policies as “Obamanomics,” called it a form of “crony capitalism on steroids” and said some aspects of Obamacare should be dubbed “no bureaucrat left behind” for the thousands of I.R.S. jobs the bill has created to collect what the Supreme Court found to be a tax.
She accused Obama of having “recklessly mortgaged our children’s future $5 trillion in new debt,” being “constantly adrift,” and being afraid of the Tea Party. ...

Analysis: Economist vs. "Eastern Europe". In a video post (2:11) from London, The Economist argues for retiring the term "Eastern Europe". The analysts see a role for constructs like "Danube Europe", "Roman Europe", "Scared of Russia Europe", and particularly "Solvent Europe" - but not "Eastern Europe" with its Cold War legacy. Maybe we should call it something more catchy, like, say, where the West ends.

Morning Report: 2012-07-13

Oil rolls across Turkey's border, welfare reform rolled back, and US forces ready to roll.

Turkey: Oil imports beginfrom Iraqi Kurdistan. Or "northern Iraq" as the Turks prefer to call it. 'Turkey has started to import five to 10 road tankers of crude oil from northern Iraq per day and the volume could rise to 100-200 tankers per day ...'

USA: Obama undercuts welfare reform. Robert Rector and Katherine Bradley at The Corner:

This afternoon, President Obama’s Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) released an official policy directive undermining the welfare reform law of 1996. The new policy guts the federal work requirements that have been the foundation of that law — one of the most successful domestic policy reforms in the 20th century.

Welfare reform replaced the old Aid to Families with Dependent Children with a new program, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). The underlying concept of welfare reform was that able-bodied adults should be required to work or prepare for work as a condition of receiving welfare aid. ...

Read the rest at the link.

USA / Middle East: Growing presence leaves fewer options. Walter Russell Mead: 'This latest deployment, as well as last week’s report of a steadily increasing U.S. military presence, may have unintended consequences for U.S. policy. Every step forward makes it more difficult for the Obama administration to back down.'

Morning Report: 2012-07-05

Mexico: WRM on Peña Nieto's path forward. Via Meadia: 'Enrique Peña Nieto’s victory in this week’s presidential election in Mexico is a big one for Mexico, and not only because it means the return of his Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) to power. It also means new (or perhaps a return to the old, pre-Calderón) policies towards the country’s out-of-control drug trade. ...'

Iraq: Suicide bomber kills 3 in Mosul. 'At least three people were killed and 15 wounded on Thursday when a suicide bomber blew himself up in a barber's shop popular with police in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, police and hospital sources said. ...'

Interview: MJT and Rick Francona on Middle East, Bosnia. Michael Totten interviews Rick Francona on the occasion of Francona's new book 'Chasing Demons: My Hunt for War Criminals in Bosnia'.

MJT: Did you learn anything in Bosnia that applies to the Middle East?

Rick Francona: Perhaps it’s the other way around. When I arrived in Bosnia with no real background in the Balkans other than the briefings on the mission and operation, I felt really unprepared. After I was there a few days, I noticed a lot of similarities in the basic divisions in the population. In Bosnia, the major division of course was between the Orthodox Serbs and the Muslim Bosniaks, sort of like in Lebanon, although without nearly as many factions.

As in the Middle East, I realized that once someone on either side injects religion into the argument, you might as well stop talking. ...

Morning Report: 2012-07-03

Iraq: Bomb attacks kill 25+. YNet: 'A car bomb in a busy market in the southern Iraqi city of Diwaniya killed at least 25 people and wounded 40 others on Tuesday, a provincial council official said. ...' NOW Lebanon:

A truck bomb in a crowded market in the central Iraqi city of Diwaniya killed at least 25 people on Tuesday, the latest victims of a spike in nationwide violence, medical and security officials said.

"At least 25 people were killed and around 70 wounded when a bomb blew up in a truck parked in the central market" at around 10:15 a.m. (0715 GMT), a police colonel told AFP on condition of anonymity.

A hospital source in the city, 160 kilometers (100 miles) south of Baghdad, confirmed receiving 25 dead.

Shortly afterwards authorities imposed a curfew across the city of some 440,000 people.

The blast came just hours after near-simultaneous car bombs targeting Shia pilgrims on the outskirts of the central shrine city of Karbala killed four people....

USA: There is no power in Washington, DC. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Oh, wait, they mean electric power. 'With much of the East Coast still struggling to recover from recent storms that cut power to millions of residents during a heat wave, President Barack Obama is wrapping up a comfortable vacation in Camp David. He was not too busy to visit the scene of wildfires in swing-state Colorado--and make some fundraising calls from Air Force One en route--but he somehow could not muster the strength to address the state of emergency closer to home. Twenty-two people have died, and residents around Washington, DC are struggling to navigate roads whose signals have not worked for days. ...' Read the rest at Breitbart.

Morning Report: 2012-06-27

Iraq: Bombs target Shi'a, kill 7 in Baghdad. 'Bombs planted around a Shi'ite politician's house killed seven people and wounded 21 others in Baghdad on Wednesday, police said, the latest in a string of attacks which have raised fears of a return to widespread sectarian violence. Unknown militants carried out the attack in the al-Wahda district in the south of the Iraqi capital, police said. It was not immediately clear if the politician was one of the victims. ...'

Mexico: Peña Nieto holds lead. 'Mexican presidential front-runner Enrique Pena Nieto goes into Sunday's election with a wide lead over his rivals, opinion polls showed on Wednesday as campaigning wraps up, putting him on track to return the party that ruled for much of the last century to power....'

US / Russia / Israel: Obama's platitudes, Putin's partnership. Breitbart:

Israel rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin and a host of Russian dignitaries this week, showing a desire by both parties to repair strained ties between the two countries. Israel has good reason to be open to strengthening its relationship with Russia. A long series of diplomatic failures in regard to the “Arab Spring” by the Obama administration, and a conspicuous lack of a visit to Israel since Obama’s inauguration, have placed Israel in an increasingly tenuous and isolated position as America’s influence wanes in the region. It is a strategic vacuum that Putin would like to fill.

And while President Obama made Prime Minister Netanyahu come and go through a White House side door and would not deign to have a meal with him, President Putin came to Bibi’s door bearing gifts.

Foremost on the minds of Israelis during Putin’s visit were the Iranian nuclear program and the ever widening sphere of the Syrian civil war. And though no specific agreements were reached on these issues, President Putin did address them, saying, "From my experience, one must think about the consequences of an act before doing it. Look what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. With regard to Syria, one must think carefully whether the opposition that will rise to power will be what the West wants it to be, or whether it will end up being totally the opposite." Regarding Israel in particular he said, "The region in which Israel sits greatly influences the feelings of the entire international community. Russia has a national interest in assuring peace and tranquility for Israel."

While Putin’s words will be considered by many to be empty platitudes on par with Obama’s election year rhetoric, nothing says commitment like investment. President Putin’s gifts came in the form of a raft of Russian dignitaries and businessmen, seeking economic alliances in a variety of areas. ...

Morning Report: 2012-05-31

Seven killed in Syria battles. NOW Lebanon: 'Battles raged in Syria as regime troops and rebel forces clashed on Thursday across the country, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, adding that at least seven people were killed, including a young boy. Regime forces pounded central Houla, site of a recent massacre, for a second consecutive day, along with heavy machinegun fire, said the Britain-based watchdog. ...'

Baghdad bombings kill 16. AFP: 'A spate of bombings in Baghdad on Thursday killed at least 16 people and wounded dozens more, shattering a relative calm with the capital's deadliest violence in weeks. Roadside bombs and explosives-packed cars detonated across a half-dozen neighbourhoods in the north, south and west of Baghdad, underlining persistent security concerns even as international energy companies met in the centre of the capital to bid on nationwide oil and gas exploration blocks. Overall, 16 people were killed and at least 56 wounded in the attacks, an interior ministry official and two medical sources said. ...'

Egypt's forgotten secularists. Tara Vassefi at Gupowder and Lead:

Last week, Egyptians headed to the polls for their first free and fair elections. The resulting runoff between the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi and the former Mubarak official Ahmed Shafiq leaves voters in the tenuous position of having to choose between an Islamist domination of the government and a remnant of the regime they revolted against.

Though an Islamist domination ofEgypt’s politics seems highly possible now, this was not necessarily the case in January 2011 when the revolution seized Egypt. At that time, the members of El Zabaleen had joined their friends and classmates in Tahrir to protest a system, and a government that was no longer tolerable even for the wealthy and employed. Youssef El Kady, the founder of El Zabaleen, describes the other early revolutionaries: “You can’t really generalize by saying it was young people or Salafis or whatever, but from my perspective, I think that it started off not by the people who are struggling economically, but rather with the people who are fed up with the corrupt system that has been there all their life.”

In January 2011, many in Egypt shared El Kady’s perspective. While the Arab Spring found its catalyst in a poor Tunisian street vendor, the impetus for the revolution in Egypt was Wael Ghonim, an educated Google executive who was raised in a middle-class family. Ghonim and other young activists used not just their presence in Tahrir but also social media to topple Mubarak. There are disagreements over the extent to which Facebook and Twitter themselves produced the revolutions, but studies such as the Dubai School of Government’s Arab Social Media Report give empirical substantiation to the unique and prominent role of these online tools.

But on Earth Day 2012, none of these educated, well-off youth could be found in Tahrir. The liberal parties have taken a backseat to Islamist and military political dominance ...

Commentary. There's more on the dark side of the Arab Spring from Michael Totten: Where the Arab Spring began.

Tunisia is moderate and even liberal compared with other Arabic-speaking countries, but the place still suffers from a heady case of Israel Derangement Syndrome. More than half the people I interviewed complained about Israel at least once even when I didn’t ask about it. Not a single one of these people—not a one—based their complaint in reality. They were jousting with a fantasy Israel that only exists in their minds. ...

Read the whole thing at the link.

Erbil Essence

Al-Monitor: Is Erbil the next Dubai?
'Beymen, one of Turkey’s leading apparel producers and retailers, opened its second outlet abroad in the rapidly developing city of Erbil, in northern Iraq. Beymen CEO Elif Capci said that Erbil Beymen was opened through a partnership with a well-known local businessman, owner of Elegan Construction, Sarp Turanligil. ...'
Go read it all. Note that the article, originally published in Turkish at Taraf, refers only to "northern Iraq" and avoids mentioning the Iraqi Kurdistan region by name.