Turkey: Gunman kills 39 in Istanbul nightclub. 'A gunman opened fire on New Year revelers at a packed nightclub on the shores of Istanbul's Bosphorus waterway on Sunday killing at least 39 people, including many foreigners, then fled the scene. ...' (Reuters)
Analysis - Stratfor: Hits, and a Brexit miss. 'As we brace for what looks to be a volatile 2017, it is important to reflect on the year that was. Our 2016 Annual Forecast stressed the complex interconnectivity of several major trends: Turkey's resurgence, the U.S.-Russia standoff, the Syrian civil war, surging nationalism in Europe and economic stress driving big political change in much of the world. ...' The editors of the Austin-based journal acknowledge having missed their guess on the 'Leave' vote in the UK's referendum: 'This misstep spurred intense introspection on the part of our analyst team to understand why the call was made in spite of our longer-term forecast that the United Kingdom was distancing itself from increasingly divisive Continental affairs. The problem is inertia: We know the overarching trend, but it is much trickier to pinpoint when the fundamental break occurs.' The editors judged, however, that the 'nationalist fever that gripped Europe could easily drift across the Atlantic to the United States.'