Morning Report: February 17, 2008

Dead or alive?

Israel will declare kidnapped soldiers dead.  Arutz Sheva:  'According to the German weekly Der Spiegel, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is considering declaring kidnapped IDF soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser dead.  The two were taken captive by Hizbullah terrorists in the summer of 2006.'

Israel won't declare kidnapped soldiers dead.  Arutz Sheva:  'A senior government source said Saturday night that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert assumes that kidnapped IDF soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser are alive.  His statement contradicted a report in the German weekly Der Spiegel which stated that Olmert planned to declare the two soldiers dead in absence of any proof of life.'

Mughniyeh hit faked?  Arutz Sheva:  'Egyptian researcher Majdi Kamal, who recently published a book on senior Hizbullah terrorist Imad Mughniyeh, has announced that he believes Mughniyeh’s death was staged.  Mughniyeh evaded 42 security services in nations worldwide, Kamal said.  According to Kamal, it is not logical that Mughniyeh would be killed by something as simple as a car bomb.'  Debka seems to be thinking along similar lines:  'An intriguing conspiracy theory emanating unexpectedly from Western sources was suggested by the veteran CNN correspondent Jim Clancy. In his view, Mughniyeh, the consummate master of deception, may still be alive. Others took the theory further and suggested his death may have been fabricated to provide Iran, Syria and Hizballah with a strong casus belli to attack Israel without further delay, and so repeat the Arabs’ Yom Kippur success 35 years ago in catching Israel unawares.'

Kosovo declares independence from Serbia.  And The Belmont Club has a roundup.

Commentary.Michael Totten compares two counterinsurgency strategies - the Petraeus version and the Olmert version - with a cautionary note to a putative President Obama:

American General David Petraeus proved counterinsurgency in Arabic countries can work. His surge of troops in Iraq is about a change of tactics more than an increase in numbers, and his tactics so far have surpassed all expectations. The “light footprint” model used during former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s tenure may have seemed like a good idea at the time, but American soldiers and Marines had no chance of defeating insurgents from behind barbed wire garrisons. Only now that the troops have left the relative safety and comfort of their bases and intimately integrated themselves into the Iraqi population are they able to isolate and track down the killers. They do so with help from the locals. They acquired that help because they slowly forged trusting relationships and alliances, and because they protect the civilians from violence.

The Israel Defense Forces did nothing of the sort in Lebanon. Most Lebanese Shias are so hostile to Israel that such a strategy might not work even if David Petraeus himself were in charge of it. Even then it would take years to produce the desired results, just as it has taken several years in Iraq. Israelis have no wish to spend years fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon. International pressure would force them out if they did.

A Petraeus-like strategy wasn’t an option for Olmert. That, however, doesn’t mean we can’t compare the effectiveness of the Olmert and Petraeus strategies.

The Israel Defense Forces fought a month-long asymmetrical war in Lebanon mostly with air strikes. Israel didn’t aim at civilians, but it goes without saying that Israel likewise didn’t protect civilians from violence as the Americans protect Iraqis from violence. That can’t be done from the air. Israel did nothing at all to inspire the people of South Lebanon to come around to their side. Israelis, from the point of view of South Lebanese, are faceless enemies that devastated their towns from the heavens.

Now go to the article to find out what strategy Barack Obama proposes in Iraq. Has the would-be Commander In Chief read the Army's counterinsurgency manual? Totten has.