Azarmehr on Iran and Regime Change

Azarmehr writes at Harry's Place in response to an Israeli claim that the islamist regime in Iran is "here to stay":

I have rarely read something so defeatist in the last 29 years, during which I have followed Iranian related news on a daily basis. In fact the article does not give any valid reasons why the Islamic regime cannot be toppled, it just says it's difficult! So should we only engage in easy tasks? Next time I am handed a project at work should I say, oh that's difficult, I only want to do easy ones?

I have to say I agree with a few points in the article. Fomenting ethnic dissent is counter-productive to toppling the regime. Those familiar with Iranian history and Iranian psychology will realise that the overwhelming majority of Iranians are so anti-separatism that they will put up with the most repressive regime to keep the historic entity of Iran intact, and this includes myself. The Islamic Republic does not discriminate against the ethnicity of Iranians, it discriminates against those who do not conform to the state's interpretation of religion. The Islamic Republic is not a "Persian chauvinist" state, the Supreme Leader is an Azeri like myself. Persian is not a ruling ethnic group, it's the common language of the Iranian people and much loved because of its richness by all Iranian people. The majority of Persian literature lecturers and scholars are non-Persians.

Back to my objections to the article. Is it difficult to topple the regime? Yes it is. Is it impossible? Not at all. Why is it not impossible? Just look at the trend of its popularity in the last 29 years. In the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic revolution, 98 percent of the people voted for the referendum to establish an Islamic republic. Although it was a flawed election, we have to accept that the majority were in favour, not knowing what was ahead for them. Would a similar number vote in favour now? Absolutely not. Just look at the filtering of the candidates by the Guardian Council. The regime is so scared of giving the Iranian people a real choice that even the most loyal people to the revolution are now barred from standing as candidates. If the likes of Yossi Alpher bothered to promote engagement with Iranian dissidents as well as with Iranian state officials, perhaps it would surprise him to find out from the ex-political prisoners that even their prison guards and governors would at times manifest their hatred of the religious dictatorship in Iran. That's how deeply unpopular the regime has become.

The difficulty in mobilising the Iranian masses to reach the critical mass required to topple the regime is that the regime to them seems invincible. They lack confidence, and certainly such articles by Yossi Alpher do not help. ...