Dreams Into Lightning

Morning Report: 2008-05-09

Iran's influence, from the Persian Gulf to the Levantine coast; and a candidate who is no longer flattered.

Hezbollah rears its head in Beirut. This Ain't Hell: 'I guess Hezbollah decided that attacking Israel head-to-head is too costly, and seein’s how they’re just bloodthirsty thugs that need to kill, they’ve decided to declare war on the Lebanese Army - an army they’re reasonably certain they can beat ...' Gateway Pundit has a roundup. Via Exit Zero, Lebanese Political Journal reports:

Hezbollah has taken control of the media in Lebanon, and their propaganda campaign has already begun. They are currently presenting themselves as liberators of Lebanon, and allies of the Lebanese Army against a corrupt government supported by pro-government snipers and brigrands.

Hezbollah's militant takeover of Beirut and its systematic destruction of the authority of the state and freedom of the press suggests a sophisticated and planned campaign to take power. There is no hiding the violence Hezbollah used to seize Beirut and cut it off from the rest of the country. But as their media campaign is already showing, Hezbollah is employing subtle and sophisticated mechanisms to take over the rest of Lebanon. All news which could be construed as negative behaviors, such as the blatant destruction and corruption of Lebanese institutions, is hidden beneath a Hezbollah-dominated media blackout....

Targeting the Lebanese Christians

Hezbollah seems to be making a concerted effort to placate the Christian population. Ashrafieh was not attacked, and life is relatively normal in the Christian suburbs north of Beirut.

Belmont Club, reader on Iran's islands. The Belmont Club discusses a reader's insights on the strategic importance of certain islands in the Persian Gulf:

In particular any naval conflict with Iran, whether of a defense or offensive nature will require the capture of several Iranian held islands in the middle of the waterway in the Gulf of Hormuz. The islands, Siri, Abu Musa and the Tunb group "are arsenals on the deep water channel in and out of the Gulf, they will require Marines to secure in a war against Iran". The Tunbs, incidentally, are claimed by the UAE. ...

Logically any naval confrontation with Iran would imply an amphibious operation to taking out these islands and the "armchair admiral" advises his readers to watch for the deployment of such forces when assessing the likelihood of conflict with Iran. Readers should bear in mind, however, that given the limited distances in the Gulf, a shore to shore operation might be conceivable.

Obama not flattered anymore. Goldfarb at the Standard:

Deftly pivoting on a dime, the Obama campaign has emphatically declared the irrelevancy of the Hamas endorsement. But it was not ever thus. Let's enter the way-back machine and journey all the way back to April when Hamas let its preference be known:

When asked about the endorsement, Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, was flattered that Hamas compared his candidate to JFK: “We all agree that John Kennedy was a great president, and it's flattering when anybody says that Barack Obama would follow in his footsteps.”

And yet suddenly it's dirty pool to mention this endorsement, one that initially flattered the Obama campaign? Actually, Axelrod's initial reaction highlights something I pointed out a couple of weeks ago – Obama loves to be loved, and that leads him to some strange places. We truly have entered some odd ground when a presidential campaign welcomes kind words from an Iranian terror proxy.

Commentary. I expect to be back to regular posting by Sunday. Have a great weekend.

Morning Report: 2008-04-24

Feminists, generals, and nuclear reactors around the world.

Iranian feminists arrested. Feministing:

Three Iranian feminists were recently arrested and received suspended sentences of lashings and six months in prison for "acting against national security."

Nasrin Afzali (pictured at right), Nahid Jafari, and Minoo Mortazi were found guilty of acting against national security, disrupting public order, and refusing to follow police orders. All the charges stem from their participation in a political rally outside a Tehran courtroom in March 2006.

A fourth female activist, Zeinab Payghambarzadeh, who attended the same rally, was given a two-year suspended prison term after being accused of similar charges.

The sentences will only be carried out if the women are found guilty of another crime within two years. All four women intend to appeal the verdicts.

The women charged are the activists responsible for the One Million Signatures Campaign, which aims to collect one million signatures for petition addressed to the Iranian Parliament asking for an end to discriminatory laws against women.

More here: One million signatures campaign.

Iraqi general issues ultimatum to Mahdi Army. Bill Roggio, Long War Journal:

The senior-most Iraqi general in charge of the security operation in Basrah has issued an ultimatum for wanted Mahdi Army leaders and fighters to surrender in the next 24 hours as the Iraqi and US military ignore Muqtada al Sadr's threat to conduct a third uprising. US troops killed 15 Mahdi Army fighters in Baghdad yesterday and have killed 56 fighters since Sadr issued his threat last weekend.

In Basrah, General Mohan al Freiji, the chief of the Basrah Operational Commander and leader of the security operation in the province, has issued warrants "for 81 people, including senior leaders of the Mahdi militia, and they have 24 hours to give up," The Associated Press reported.

Iraqi troops continue to clear Basrah, although the fighting has been sparse since security forces cleared the Mahdi Army-controlled Hayaniyah neighborhood in Basrah last weekend. Iraqi forces "seized a cache containing huge amounts of weapons and ammunition" in the Al Tanuma neighborhood in eastern Basrah, Voices of Iraq reported. "The cache contains more than (1000) mortar rounds of different calibers, explosive equipment, and improvised explosive devices," a source told the Iraqi newspaper. ...

Saudi women appeal for freedoms. Via Muslims Against Sharia:

In Riyadh, the college day begins for female students behind a locked door that will remain that way until male guardians come to collect them. Later, in a female-run business, everyone must vacate the premises so a delivery man can drop off a package. In Jeddah, a 40-year-old divorced woman cannot board a plane without the written permission of her 23-year-old son. Elsewhere, a female doctor cannot leave the house at all as her male driver fails to turn up for work. These scenes make up the daily reality for half of the Saudi Kingdom, the only country where women legally belong to men.

After more than a decade of lobbying, the New York-based group Human Rights Watch (HRW) has finally been granted access to Saudi Arabia, where it has uncovered a disturbing picture of women forced to live as children, denied basic rights and confined to a suffocating dependency on men.

Wajeha al-Huwaider, a critic of Saudi’s guardian laws that force women to seek male permission for almost all aspects of their lives, is one of a growing number demanding change. “Sometimes I feel like I can’t do anything; I am utterly reliant on other people, completely dependent. If you are dependent on another person, you’ve got nothing. That is how the men like it. They don’t want us to be equals.” ...

Read the rest at Pat Dollard.

US intel believes Syria had plutonium reactor. JTA: 'U.S. intelligence reportedly believes Israel bombed a plutonium reactor in Syria last September. CIA officials will tell Congress on Thursday that the target of a mysterious Israeli air raid in northern Syria on Sept. 6 was a reactor built with North Korean help, the Los Angeles Times reported.' JTA also quotes Ma'ariv as saying that the reactor was destroyed before it became active; and that if it had been bombed after becoming active, it might have poisoned the nearby Euphrates, threatening a major water supply for much of the Middle East. Israel Matzav links to a Washington Post article indicating that Israel gave the US a video showing North Korean technicians inside the reactor.

Sources familiar with the video say it also shows that the Syrian reactor core's design is the same as that of the North Korean reactor at Yongbyon, including a virtually identical configuration and number of holes for fuel rods. It shows "remarkable resemblances inside and out to Yongbyon," a U.S. intelligence official said. A nuclear weapons specialist called the video "very, very damning."

Carl adds:

I believe that now I understand why Israel is really upset over this Congressional briefing. It has nothing to do with its potential to embarrass Assad. Someone took that video, and quite likely they took it out in the open. Israel is afraid of that intelligence source (and possibly others) in Syria being compromised.

Arutz Sheva: 'Israel, the U.S. and Syria have never divulged details about the attack, and today's presentation is a major departure from this policy. Israel is reportedly not happy with the change, fearing that it will revive the tensions between Syria and Israel. ...'

Iranian and Syrian foreign ministers meet. Arutz Sheva: 'The foreign ministers of Syria and Iran met in Tehran Wednesday to discuss "mutual interests, including Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq and Israel."'

Petraeus nominated for CENTCOM CINC. MSNBC: 'President Bush is promoting his top Iraq commander, Army Gen. David Petraeus, and replacing him with the general’s recent deputy, keeping the United States on its war course and handing the next president a pair of combat-tested commanders who have relentlessly defended Bush’s strategies.' He'll replace the outgoing Admiral Fallon. The Belmont Club:

Gen Petraeus has been nominated to head CENTCOM, according to the Washington Post. And Gen Odierno, his deputy, will take over command of ground forces in Iraq. I think this news will be received with great alarm and trepidation in Teheran.

As I've written in the past, I don't think an invasion or bombing campaign of Iran is in the works. What I think will happen (and it's just my own opinion) is that Petraeus plans take a hammer to all the places where Iran has poked its finger; turn its own allies against it with a combination of targeted force and politics.

More important than his battlefield successes in Iraq may be the implied victory in Pentagon politics that his nomination to CENTCOM chief suggests. It's important to remember that before the Surge, Petraeus' ideas were on the margin. Now they are in the mainstream.

SIU College Republicans and administration apologize for anti-feminist rant. Back to Feministing:

I have to say, I'm impressed. When I posted an anti-feminist hate email from the (now former) public relations officer of the Southern Illinois University College Republicans, I didn't expect any action to be taken.

On the contrary, not only did officers of the CR - Wess Haubrich and Jermaine Raymer - come into the thread to offer apologies (as did the emailer himself, Alex Kochno, though his apology was not as well-taken by commenters), but SIU also took out an ad in their college paper (4/23, p 14) renouncing the act. Kochno also resigned from his position at CR, I'm assuming under pressure from his peers.

And to top things off, I received an email from the SIU administration informing me how seriously they took the email and that Kochno's email privileges were suspended pending a student conduct code review. ...

If you're a glutton for misogyny, the original missive is here. And as Jessica says, kudos to SIU and its CR for doing the right thing.

Briefly noted. Michael Totten is going to the Balkans.

Commentary. ThreatsWatch has more on the Petraeus promotion:

CENTCOM command is both logical and necessary for continuity in Iraq to sustain gains there. This importance and its recognition can be seen in the simultaneous naming of Lt. Gen. Ray Ordierno - Petraus’ second in command for the duration of Petraeus’ tour as MNF-I CG - as his successor in Iraq command.

Hillary Clinton and Iran

Hillary Clinton vowed that if she were president and if Iran were to launch a nuclear attack on Israel, the US could "totally obliterate" Iran.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, facing a crucial primary in Pennsylvania Tuesday, said that if she were in the White House and Tehran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons, the United States would be able to 'totally obliterate' Iran.

Interviewed on ABC's Good Morning America program, Clinton was asked what she would do if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons.
"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran," Clinton replied. "In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."

Now, from a pro-Israel, anti-Iranian-regime standpoint, what's wrong with that statement? Just about everything.

First and most directly to the point, the object is to prevent Israel from being nuked in the first place. The question posed to HRC presupposed the hypothetical case of Israel having been nuked; but Senator Clinton failed to stress that such a scenario, if (G-d forbid) it were to occur, would itself represent an enormous tragedy and a massive failure of diplomacy and strategy. The cavalier "nuke 'em till they glow" attitude would be of scarce comfort to the Israeli victims of such a strike.

But what about deterrence? Cannot Senator Clinton say that by publicly articulating a hard line, she is making it less likely that the attack will occur in the first place? No. Again, by tacitly granting the initial premise - an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel - she makes it clear that she is not serious about preventing such an attack from occurring. And this in turn makes the obscene threat sound like a bluff.

Whether the threat is in earnest or not, it will do little to deter Iran. During the Cold War, deterrence was our only recourse against the Soviet Union, because we did not have the means to prevent the Soviets from acquiring nuclear weapons or building an arsenal; and it was effective because the Soviet dictators, cruel and evil men though they were, were not so suicidally irrational as to actively seek that Mutually Assured Destruction that would have been the result of a nuclear exchange.

None of these things apply to Iran. The mad mullahs in Tehran may very well be willing to sacrifice thousands or even millions of their people if it means furthering their destructive designs against the Jews. But there is no reason for the West to meekly accept those plans, because they can be stopped. The Iranian nuclear program can be stopped and, I believe, the regime in Tehran overthrown without recourse to massive nuclear weapons.

In short: An ounce of prevention is worth a kiloton of cure.

Finally, the most deeply offensive thing about Clinton's remark is its utter disregard for innocent human life, in Iran and elsewhere. What sane person would want to "totally obliterate" an entire nation? Destroy its war machine, if necessary, or topple its dictators - but "totally obliterate" Iran? What kind of madness is that?

It's the madness of someone who is afraid of being seen as weak; who, instead of imagining how she might win a meaningful victory, fantasizes about the scores she will settle when she loses.

Morning Report: 2008-04-23

The Senator from New York scores a win, and presents the keystone of her Middle East strategy; and more.

Pennsylvania Democrats cling to guns, religion, and Hillary Clinton. She may not have "totally obliterated" her opponent, but Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton did score a decisive victory over Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. GayPatriot:

As I am about to retire this evening, Hillary Clinton has won Pennsylvania and is nurturing a 9% lead and about a 150,000 vote margin — which has increased by 50,000 in the past hour. Being a Pennsylvania native I know a lot about the state, and I observe that MANY of the rural counties (including a couple of the Philly burbs) aren’t reporting all results yet. I suspect Hillary will top 10%, if not more once all the votes are counted.

MSNBC: 'Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton on Tuesday won Pennsylvania’s presidential primary, a victory that analysts said she had to have if she were to remain a credible candidate for the Democratic nomination. Clinton, independent analysts and the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois had predicted ahead of time that Clinton would win the state, where she enjoyed large leads in opinion polls until recently. But after closing the deficit in the last few weeks, Obama’s advisers said he would have the momentum unless Clinton won by a sizable margin.'

US citizen arrested on charges of spying for Israel. Debka: 'DEBKAfile’s Washington sources report the charge is serious enough to affect President George W. Bush’s plan to attend Israel’s 60th anniversary celebrations next month. Connecticut-born Ben-Ami Kadish, now 84, is accused of giving an Israeli consulate employee classified documents about nuclear weapons, an F-15 fighter jet and the US Patriot system in the 1980s. The US justice department describes Kadish's Israeli handler as the same man who handled convicted spy Jonathan Pollard. This handler, identified only as “co-conspirator 1” left the US after Pollard’s exposure but stayed in touch with him until March of this year. Israeli cabinet minister Raffi Eytan, known as Pollard’s handler, said he had no idea of what this was about. One of the four counts against Kadish is of participating in a conspiracy to disclose documents related to national defense in the years 1979-1985...' Arutz Sheva: 'Foreign Ministry spokesman Aryeh Mekel officially denied knowledge of a report Tuesday night that the US has arrested an American Jew on charges of spying for the Jewish State from 1979 to 1985. Mekel said the ministry learned of the affair from media reports.'

Zawahiri: Tehran gives Jews credit for 9/11, steals our thunder. Tammy Bruce:

Al-Qaida #2 psychopathic murderer Zawahiri is tired of AQ not getting the credit they deserve for being the most depraved beasts on Earth. That's right, damn it--Zawahiri is really mad at Iran especially for spreading the lie that Israel and the Jews were responsible for the abomination of September 11th, when AQ worked so hard to murder as many innocent, unarmed civilians as possible. But for some reason the other psychopathic Islamists aren't giving AQ the respect they deserve. Is that a tiny tear rolling down my face? Why, yes it is! From laughter.

Full story here.

"Out" of touch. GayPatriotWest on that "Out" Republican hit piece by Charles Kaiser:

Having read the piece, I am amazed at little its author actually knows about gay Republicans (kind of like Dobson and gay people). He devotes a good chunk of his article to Terry Dolan, the one-time head of the National Conservative Political Action Committee (NCPAC) by day and supposedly notorious leather queen by night. Dolan died over two decades ago, just over six years before Log Cabin set up its national office in Washington and years before Republican Congressmen Jim Kolbe continued to win reelection in Arizona even after coming out as gay.

Given the fact that Dolan died when Reagan was president, you’d think he’d hold less interest to a reporter covering gay Republicans in 2008 than an openly gay Republican Congressman who chaired a House subcommittee in the current Bush Administration. But, Kolbe gets nary a mention in this article while Kaiser quotes a “Democratic political consultant” for an anecdote about Dolan.

Read the rest at the link.

Commentary. I have some thoughts on Hillary Clinton's promise to "totally obliterate" Iran if that country launched a nuclear attack on Israel, but I'll package those in a separate post. For now, I'll just quote James Lewis at American Thinker:

Hillary is trying to sound like a Neanderthal about nukes, presumably because that's what she thinks will appeal to the God, guns, and beer guzzling folk buried deep in those small towns. It is a clear signal of her contempt for Americans who are serious about national security. ...

Contrary to Hillary's militant outburst, there are no sane conservatives who want to nuke Iran. No neocons and no paleocons, no con-cons. No sane people, period. Ronald Reagan hated the nuclear standoff with the Soviets, and seized the first opportunity to negotiate mutually stabilizing reductions on offensive weapons. Reagan had no desire to hurt people -- either our self-declared enemies or Americans; unless, of course, it had to be done as a last resort. That is why he always believed in building up viable missile defenses. It has been the Left, for deeply irrational reasons, that has consistently resisted anti-missile technology for the last thirty years.

If Iran attacks Israel, the latter has an estimated 200 well-tested nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Israel can retaliate with overwhelming force on its own if Iran attacks; which is why the Iranians have been operating through proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. With its cruise missile subs, the IDF has a second-strike capacity even for the worst case attack that is now conceivable. But even a nuclear defensive response by Israel would exact a terrible political price. Nukes are truly a weapon of last resort.

The real point, of course, is to block the development of Iranian nukes in the first place so that the threat will never arise. ...

So Hillary's militant-sounding promise to "obliterate" Iran is not just phony but obscene. You don't threaten to kill a nation, except for your own survival in the very worst case. Hillary is not in such a desperate survival corner, and if we are lucky, she will never be President and be charged with that terrifying responsibility.

So this was a particularly disgusting piece of political theater. John McCain has seen war and suffered from it. One thing we can expect from him, should he become president, is a decent respect for the seriousness of the military choices a president may have to make.

Go read this very fine piece in its entirety.

Senator Clinton has provided a spectacularly fine illustration of the Belmont Club's Three Conjectures. As Richard Fernandez argues in a new post,

I wrote in the Three Conjectures that the eventual cost of not fighting the War on Terror selectively and aggressively would be the necessity to obliterate enemy populations indiscriminately. In other words, the price of rejecting a targeted, active strategy would be the eventual acceptance of a Hillary Clinton strategy. It's true that "we would be able to totally obliterate them" after Israel is incinerated. But that kind of misses the point.

"Out" Magazine runs hit piece on gay Republicans ...

... without consulting a single gay Republican. Here's the scoop from Log Cabin:

In the May issue of "Out" Magazine, writer Charles Kaiser does an amazingly poor job of covering gay Republicans in Washington, DC. The article, called "Washington's Gay War," adds up to nothing more than a smear campaign against gay Republicans.

Astoundingly, the "reporter" failed to talk to one single gay Republican for the article! Even mainstream bloggers have noticed. Chris Crain, former editor of the Washington Blade, took the words right out of our mouth:

"But talk about an appallingly bad job...Author Charles Kaiser ("The Gay Metropolis") was the one tasked with shedding some insight on the phenomenon of closeted gay Republicans. So who did he talk to: Barney Frank, outing activist/ blogger Mike Rogers, an unnamed Democratic political consultant and a gay Washington Post reporter.

What about an actual living, breathing gay Republican (closeted or otherwise)? Wouldn't they be at least relevant? Could Kaiser not find the number for Log Cabin?"

But I suppose actually talking to a gay Republican for this article would have distracted from the titillating stereotype Mr. Kaiser was trying to portray. One of the lead sentences in the article says it all:

"Welcome to gay Washington in the 21st century, where the gay Democrats are proud and out on the Hill and in the lobbying firms on K Street, while many gay Republicans still cower in the closet..."

It's that simple, huh? Gay Republicans hide in the closet while gay Democrats are "proud and out." When Log Cabin's national office contacted "Out" Magazine to ask about writing a letter to the editor to rebut Kaiser's biased reporting, we were told it couldn't run until the August issue!

Here's the original article: Washington's Gay War - Charles Kaiser. Oh, and go read the comments.

Morning Report: 2008-04-22

Iraq comes into its own, no thanks to fair-weather friends. A rogue son is disowned, and an actress gets a wary look from a fellow Frenchman. France gets tough on pirates, and Dutch gays take stock of their political loyalties.

Maliki criticizes neighbors for lack of support. Reuters via MSNBC: 'Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki rebuked neighboring states on Tuesday for not doing enough to strengthen ties with Baghdad, write off Iraq's debts or stop militants from entering the war-torn country. In a hard-hitting speech at a meeting in Kuwait of foreign ministers from Iraq's neighbors and Western powers, al-Maliki rattled off a list of grievances his government had.'

Muqtada al-Sadr's family turns on him. Gateway Pundit:

The following is a translation by Iraqi-American Haider Ajina from Nida'a al Rafidain News published on April 17, 2008:

Iraq’s Josef Al-Sadr says that Muqtada Al- Sadr has tainted Our Family Reputation;
--We will deal with him internally.

Alseyed Josef Alsadar a member of the honored Sadar family wrote a letter to Alrafedain news (Nida'a al Rafidain News) which said: "Muqtada al-Sadr has tainted the reputation of this respected family, and the family disowns Muqtada. We are as innocent of him as the wolf is of the blood of Josef (Biblical (Old Testament I believe) and Koranic reference) [Genesis 39:31-33 - aa]. The family is working on ways to discipline him with in the family. Consultations for this are held at the highest level to come up with punishments for its rogue son.

These courageous and dangerous statements come, for the fist time, from a member of the Sadar family. Alseyed Josef al-Sadr is considered to be a member of the family with deep faith who is rarely public. It appears he has broken his silence to show the truth before it is to late.

Al-rafidain has published this news after it consulted with Josef Alsadar, and expressed its concern that publishing his letter may threaten his life or safety.

The news agency reminded him of the assassination of Said Riadh Alnoori some days earlier. He was assassinated after he wrote Muqtada a letter asking him to dissolve the Mehdi Army. Alseyed Josef insisted we publish his letter against all threats.

Dissident Frogman: The dark side of Brigitte Bardot. Via LGF, Dissident Frogman:

No, the problem with this chronologically reversed Johan of Arc—and incidentally the reason why you're not about to see me cheer for her anytime soon—is in many ways similar to the one that caused the recent fratricidal and frankly counterproductive row between Little Green Footballs' Charles Johnson and Gates of Vienna1: namely Europe's old Fascists and Neo-Nazis piggybacking a legitimate anti-Islamist cause at their convenience, in a bid to blur the line between our liberal democracies' fight for survival and their own totalitarian agenda. Bardot is but one small crab in that fetid European cesspool of politics, but the interesting point beyond her own person is that in this instance, every party involved is equally deserving of contempt.

Bottom line: Bardot is no Fallaci. Go read the whole thing.

Pirates. Fox: 'The United States and France are drafting a U.N. resolution that would allow countries to chase and arrest pirates off Somalia's coast, responding to a spate of attacks including this week's hijacking of a Spanish tuna boat, U.N. diplomats said Monday.' OpFor:

What a strange world we live in now. In the old days, piracy in the Mediterranean drove up the price of goods due to the increased costs of bribes to the local costal kings in the Magreb. Merchant vessels that flew under flags that paid the bribes received a free pass, while others that did not were subject to attack...

Plus ca change. Meanwhile, The Belmont Club looks at French and British responses to piracy as reported in the New York Times. 'The urge to stand above the grime and gunpowder sometimes obscures the historical fact that police forces must sometimes become a little like their enemies in order to effectively fight them. The Duke of Wellington when asked about his troops understood they were the scum of the earth and once said, "I don't know if they scare the enemy, but by God, they scare me."' Some things, apparently, do change.

Dutch gays turn right. Gates of Vienna: 'Dutch gays are starting to like Geert Wilders. If it weren’t for the fact that they’re voting for other conservative parties, too, I’d assume it was his bouffant blond mop that’s drawing their attention. But now that gays on the streets of Amsterdam are routinely beaten up by gangs of immigrant “youths”, it seems that homosexuals are waking up and voting their best interests.' GayPatriot West:

I can’t remember how I first read about a rightward shift among Dutch gays, but Baron Bodissey’s post reminde me that I had intended to blog on this very topic. A poll by NOVA, a Dutch TV show found Dutch gays prefer conservative parties to “progressive” (i.e., left-of-center) ones.

I wonder if this shift has anything to do with the failure of left-wing parties to stand up to radical Muslims living in Holland who refuse to integrate into Dutch society while harassing gays and lesbians living in (and visiting as our friend Chris Crain learned) the Netherlands. A phenomenon Bruce Bawer, another friend of this blog described in his excellent book While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam is Destroying the West from Within (which both Bruce (the GayPatriot) and I recommend).

It seems that left-wing politicians in Europe are having trouble balancing the competing interests of the various “minority” (read: “victims” in coalition of oppressed) groups to whom they feel they must appeal and whom they fear offending.

Commentary. Nibras Kazimi at Talisman Gate has a few things to say about the situation in Basra:

Anonymous British commanders had told the UK’s Telegraph a couple of days ago that the Iraqi Army’s military operation in Basra was an “unmitigated disaster” and that the Iraqi commander leading it, General Mohan al-Freiji, is a “dangerous lunatic”.

It’s funny how the story never seems to get around to the point that the Iraqi Army managed to achieve in Basra what the British never could, namely, to control the city and smash the organized crime cartels. ...

Today, this headline should likewise jar a couple of people awake:

IRAQI ARMY UNCOVERS LARGE ARMS CACHE IN HAYYANIYA, BASRA

The pictures in this MNF-I write-up (Arabic version) are quite startling to begin with, but here’s the real ‘mind-blowing-ness’ of the story: this arms cache was found during a house-by-house security sweep of the Hayyaniya neighborhood, which is Basra’s equivalent of Sadr City. Who could have imagined a house-by-house sweep of Hayyaniya back in the days when the British were in charge—the same Brits who cowered into the military equivalent of a fetal position whenever they were challenged by the Mahdi Army?

In another part of town, another security sweep uncovered eight GRAD missiles. These are eight GRAD missiles that won’t be launched at the Brits during their precious teatime ceremonies over at Basra’s airport.

No wonder that some in Maliki’s circle has come to believe this rumor: British intelligence deliberately allowed Basra to turn into a hellhole so that this port city would never rival Dubai, whose princes bankroll British intelligence operations across the Middle East. Hey it’s just a rumor, right? But it get fishier when it’s synced-up with intelligence reports reaching Maliki’s office that allege that the Maktoum royals of Dubai have been funding some of Basra’s militias.

47,071

Total hits to date on DiL - TypePad: 47,071.

Thank you.

Morning Report: 2008-04-21

Roundup from ThreatsWatch. I'm just going to let ThreatsWatch do all the work this morning:

1. Al-Qaeda in Iraq announces a new wave of operations celebrating 4,000 US dead milestone as Sadr openly talks of “open war” with Iraqi government.

2. A Japanese oil tanker took fire from an unidentified ship off the coast of Yemen.

3. After Hamas suicide car bombers attacked the Rafah Israel-Gaza crossing, injuring 13 IDF soldiers, Israel is bracing for more border attacks following Carter talks with Hamas.

4. Two pro-government officials were killed in Lebanon when gunmen attacked new Phalange Party center in a drive by shooting attack just after it was inaugurated.

5. As intelligence gained in Iraq reveals more al-Qaeda suicide bombers in Iraq hail from Libya - mostly from the city of Darnah - Russia is looking to ‘rebuild ties’ with Libya.

6. A Jamaat-i-Islami official has asked the government to commence impeachment proceedings against President Musharraf.

Go to the link for details.

The Euston moment: Toward a post-post-Left liberalism. Alan Johnson at Comment Is Free (Guardian):

Two years ago a 3,000-word political statement, the Euston manifesto, argued that much of the left had suffered a theoretical collapse and a collapse of sensibility. In the words of Nick Cohen's bestseller, the left had "lost its way". We called for a realignment of progressive politics.

By reducing the complexity of the post-cold war world to a single great contest in which "imperialism" or "empire" faced "anti-imperialism" or "the resistance", parts of the left had transformed themselves into a reactionary post-left that took its enemy's enemy for its friend. We were "all Hizbullah now"as the placards had it. Listen to John Rees, a leader of the Stop the War Coalition and Respect:

"Socialists should unconditionally stand with the oppressed against the oppressor, even if the people who run the oppressed country are undemocratic and persecute minorities, like Saddam Hussein."

America was the global oppressor and Bush was the "No 1 terrorist". Anyone shooting at Americans became, by that act, the resistance to empire. A collapse of sensibility followed. The reductionism in the theory licensed habits of mind and structures of feeling well-known among the older fellow travellers of Stalinism - apologia, denial, grossly simplifying tendencies of thought, moral relativism.

The consequence was profound political disorientation. Tony Benn sat in front of the mass murderer, Saddam Hussein, and asked him, "I wonder whether you could say something yourself directly through this interview to the peace movement of the world that might help to advance the cause they have in mind?" Days later Benn was less kind to an Iraqi oppositionist, spitting the words "CIA stooge!"

The Euston manifesto was a warning cry. Post-leftists, we said, were living in what Paul Berman called "foggy zones of half-believed beliefs, freed of any responsibility to subject any given opinion to the simplest of common-sense tests".

What were these half-believed beliefs? ...

Read the article at the link to find out.

Commentary. Dreams Into Lightning celebrates its fourth anniversary of blogging and its second anniversary on TypePad today. This week also marks the second anniversary of the Euston Manifesto, to which I'm proud to be a signatory.

What She Said

Megan McArdle:

I am thus immune from, not to say monumentally disinterested in, that stock staple of political journalism: "Look what a whack job/evil bastard one of my opponents is!" The quotes have to have them advocating genocide and denying the Civil War before I am ready to believe, without further evidence, that they are especially evil. This can make the task of reading political blogs slightly wearying.

Liberalism and Conservatism

Norm Geras:

But then who would want to defect from a left which saw itself as uniting certain universal values, values like freedom and equality and justice, with the interests and struggles of the unfree, the wronged and the oppressed everywhere?

I'm for that.

P.J. O'Rourke:

Conservatism is also a matter of honor, duty, valor, patriotism, self-discipline, responsibility, good order, respect for our national institutions, reverence for the traditions of civilization, and adherence to the political honesty upon which all principles of democracy are based. Given what screw-ups we humans are in these respects, conservatism is also a matter of sense of humor.

I'm for that too.

(HT: This Ain't Hell.)

Morning Report: 2008-04-20

An Iraqi victory, and thoughts on the Left.

Hit me, beat me, make me write good news. Obviously this sinister Pentagon program was a stunning success. Tigerhawk:

Even the New York Times, which has done its level best to promote the myth of Iraqi incompetence, acknowledges that the government has won the battle of Basra...

...but only after air and artillery strikes by American and British forces cleared the way for Iraqi troops to move into the Hayaniya district and other remaining Mahdi Army militia strongholds and begin house-to house searches, Iraqi officials said. Iraqi troops were meeting little resistance, said Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf, the spokesman for the Iraqi Interior Ministry in Baghdad.

Ah, yes. Iraqi ground troops wiped out the Mahdi Army in Basra, but they couldn't do it without our Air Force. Quagmire!

Anyway, it really does not matter what the editors on 43rd Street think. Iran knows a battlefield defeat when it sees one ...

Full post at the link.

Le deserteur. Norm Geras ponders seven kinds of liberalism/leftism, and their defectors:

But then who would want to defect from a left which saw itself as uniting certain universal values, values like freedom and equality and justice, with the interests and struggles of the unfree, the wronged and the oppressed everywhere? Well, I don't know who would want to defect from this kind of left. But when I ran into them I'd try to persuade them not to defect. I'd tell them that there's a left worth belonging to, and that those who belong to it should limit their defections to parting company with the lefts that discredit its values and its better traditions.

Me, too. Read the whole thing.

Commentary. Short post today, as I'm worn out from last night's seder. Happy Passover to all those who are celebrating.

Four Years

On April 21, 2004, I wrote my first posts at Dreams Into Lightning. Two years ago, I began posting on TypePad but continued to cross-post at the Blogger site.

A lot has changed over the last four years but I have no intention of quitting blogging any time soon. In the interests of efficiency, I am going to discontinue cross-posting on Blogger; from now on DiL - Blogger will carry summaries and links to posts here at DiL - TypePad. So this is where it's at, baby.

Also in the interests of streamlining, I'm going to change the date format on Morning Report to ISO date format (YYYY-MM-DD), which will make the typing a lot easier for me.

Last weekend I disabled several of my more daunting comment-screening features and so far I have not been overrun by trolls, so I am going to leave the setup as it is for the time being. You do not have to register, pass a Turing test, or wait for my approval to post a comment. (Don't worry, if you're a troll I can still delete you.)

Finally, a big thank-you to all readers. I typically average around 50 to 100 visits a day - that's small potatoes compared to big guys like my friend Michael Totten, but I do check my stats daily and I appreciate every hit. Thanks for stopping by, and please come back soon.

UK Unitarians Challenge Partnership Law

Via Harry's Place, Islington Gazette:

THE FIRST church in Britain to ban weddings in support of homosexual rights has been backed by the gay leadership of Islington Council.

Newington Green Unitarian Church, which the 18th century feminist Mary Wollstonecraft once attended, has announced it will not hold marriages until it is able to conduct civil partnerships for gay couples.

The protest is also being held by its sister venue - the Unity Unitarian Church in Upper Street, Islington.

Now the council's Liberal Democrat leadership has expressed support.

At the moment, the law bans any religious service from taking place during a gay civil partnership.

Minister Dr Andrew Pakula, who will only conduct services of blessing at Newington Green until this is changed, said: "We will have no legal weddings until we can conduct the same equal ceremonies for all couples - including same-sex couples." ...

David T says "Good for them," and I agree.

Artist Georgianne Fastaia Opening at Secession Gallery

Via news release:

Figurative works by Georgianne Fastaia @ Secession Art & Design
show April 8th - May 22nd
reception April 18th THIS FRIDAY [TONIGHT!] 6:30pm - 9:30pm

3361 Mission @ 30th (across from Safeway)
Hours: Tuesday & Thursday, 4-7pm
Fridays 5-9pm Saturdays 12-7pm
www.secessionsf.com phone: (415) 279 3058

Secession Art + Design, San Francisco

3361 Mission Street, San Francisco 94110
(across from 30th Street Safeway)

Secession Art and Design is a gallery for up and coming artists and designers to showcase their work while supporting the local independent community. The gallery features art, fashion and jewelry both modern and vintage. Art openings and trunk shows are a destination for shoppers to come sample an intimate event, and have the opportunity to engage with and buy directly from the design community. A portion of the proceeds from trunk shows will be donated to a non profit organization, and promote the cycle of giving back, building community, and supporting the growth of independent design and local small business.

Georgianne Fastaia

To make art with all the questions answered deprives the viewer of the joy of participating in the act of creation. I believe the self balances tenuously in the ambiguous, misunderstood spaces between people. Exploring the fragility of our connection to each other is the reason I make art.

The primary subject of my work is the existential condition. I use abstracted forms--animals, figures, buildings and landscapes, to explore the movement between the joy of kinship and our ultimate alone-ness. Self-taught, the choices I make in creating each painting; exploring the border between figuration and abstraction, serve an emotive, intuitive function: to saturate the painting with feeling. I want the viewer to feel unsure, confronted by the subjects' stare or pulled into the paintings surface and left with questions.

All of my work is informed by the desire to "transform the mistake." In my process, I re-use old canvases, working into layers of paint, actively damaging and rebuilding the surface to give each a history. Through this process I seek to express a more authentic concept of beauty while striving to make paintings which retain an evocation of mystery.

Georgianne Fastaia 02/07

UPCOMING: Mission Open Studios

Mission Open Studios 2008
April 26th & 27th 11am - 6pm
The 2nd annual Mission Open Studios is a collaboration between artists in the Mission to have a free open studios art show the weekend of April 26th and 27th from 11am - 6pm. Artists will open their studios giving visitors an opportunity to purchase challenging and affordable art.

Art Explosion Studios, The Mission, San Francisco

Come to Mission Open Studios at Art Explosion Studios!

See over 100 local artists, view their work and visit their studios.

Opening reception Friday April 25th 7pm – 11pm

Open Studios Sat & Sun April 26th and 27th 11am – 6pm

Free admission & refreshments.

Art Explosion, 17th Street location:

2425 17th St Studios: Facundo Arganaraz,Aileen Barr,Rebecca Bazell,Emily Citraro,Alis Cummings,Carmen De La Mano,Jerome Doran,Ryan Ellison,Georgianne Fastaia,Gabrielle Gamboa,Andrea D Guerra,Dmitri Hochstatter,Megan Johnson,Katie Kiyoon Kwon,Katja Leibenath,Julia Lynton,Mary Corey March,Heidi McDowell,Rebecca Meredith,Stephen Minus,Shelley Monahan,David Otto,Melisa Phillips,Lucky Rapp,Catherine Reed,Jeff Riley,Lori Schwilling,Steven Scotten,Allyson Seal,Jeeti Singh,Dana Smith,Wendi Spiers,Tim Svenonius,Kirsten Tradowsky,Thad Warren,Geoff Wolfe,Rachel Znerold

Cosmopolitan vs. Small-town, working class voters.

By the numbers, by Larry M. Bartels in the New York Times.

Small-town, working-class people are more likely than their cosmopolitan counterparts, not less, to say they trust the government to do what’s right. In the 2004 National Election Study conducted by the University of Michigan, 54 percent of these people said that the government in Washington can be trusted to do what is right most of the time or just about always. Only 38 percent of cosmopolitan people expressed a similar level of trust in the federal government.

Do small-town, working-class voters cast ballots on the basis of social issues? Yes, but less than other voters do. Among these voters, those who are anti-abortion were only 6 percentage points more likely than those who favor abortion rights to vote for President Bush in 2004. The corresponding difference for the rest of the electorate was 27 points, and for cosmopolitan voters it was a remarkable 58 points. Similarly, the votes cast by the cosmopolitan crowd in 2004 were much more likely to reflect voters’ positions on gun control and gay marriage.

Small-town, working-class voters were also less likely to connect religion and politics. Support for President Bush was only 5 percentage points higher among the 39 percent of small-town voters who said they attended religious services every week or almost every week than among those who seldom or never attended religious services. The corresponding difference among cosmopolitan voters (34 percent of whom said they attended religious services regularly) was 29 percentage points.

Or, in brief,

Small-town people of modest means and limited education are not fixated on cultural issues. Rather, it is affluent, college-educated people living in cities and suburbs who are most exercised by guns and religion. In contemporary American politics, social issues are the opiate of the elites.

Now go read it all at the link. Proof that worthwhile material can occasionally be found in the pages of the NYT.

HT: Insty.

Michael Totten: Working with the Tribes

Michael Totten:

Sheikh Sattar Abu Risha, leader of the Iraq’s Anbar Salvation Council before he was murdered by a car bomb in front of his house in late 2007, summed up the Anbar Awakening movement in a few concise sentences to Johns Hopkins University Professor Fouad Ajami. “Our American friends had not understood us when they came,” he said. “They were proud, stubborn people and so were we. They worked with the opportunists, now they have turned to the tribes, and this is as it should be. The tribes hate religious parties and religious fakers.” The tribal system in Anbar Province is ancient. Attempts to overthrow it are not wise. Both Americans and Al Qaeda learned that the hard way.

Marine Captain Quintin Jones, commanding officer at Outpost Delta in the city of Karmah, told me he works with tribal authorities as well as the mayor every day and can’t get much done if he doesn’t. ...

Captain Jones: You have to understand that everything is tribal. So when the sheikhs came on board with the coalition, whatever the sheikh says to do, that's what they are going to do. The sheikhs said hey, we're not fighting the coalition anymore. They're helping us push out Al Qaeda.

Go read it all.

Morning Report: April 15, 2008

Our friends in the Middle East lend a hand; Tehran top cop's friends get him jail time.

Iraqi army rescues British journalist in Basra. Talisman Gate:

Richard Butler, a British journalist working for CBS News, was auspiciously rescued today by an Iraqi Army unit that had been conducting a security sweep through a once-volatile Basra neighborhood—one that was until recently dominated by militants—in which he had been held captive since February 10.

I mean if any event could be seen as a send-up to how western reporters have covered Operation Cavalry Charge in Basra, then this would be it!

Instead of praying for Butler’s safety, instead of taking a stand on right and wrong, the foreign press threw their sympathies behind the outlaws; those western reporters did not hold candle-lit vigils for their kidnapped comrade, since professional solidarity can’t hold a candle to the venality of Bush hatred. It was far more important for these journalists to root for the Sadrist-related criminal cartels that are being targeted by the continuing military operations in Basra and elsewhere than to admit that Iraq may be fixing itself, and may not, after all, turn into the ‘fiasco’ they’ve been heralding with certainty for so long.

Tehran police chief jailed in sex scandal. That Iranian cop who was busted a couple of weeks ago with six naked women is heading to jail. Fox: 'Local media have reported that the police chief, Gen. Reza Zarei, was taken to jail after he was caught last month with six nude women by a police raid on an underground local brothel. He was also forced to resign. Local Web sites have also extensively reported the case in recent weeks.'

IraqPundit on Chalabi. IraqPundit: 'One of McClatchy's reporter wonders what Chalabi is doing at a funeral in Moktada's turf. Chalabi is welcome there for many reasons. He is welcome because he has been the liaison between the Sadrists and the government pretty much all along. And, he is welcome because the Middle East values a member of a prominent family paying respects at a funeral.' Read the full post at the link.

US, Israel link missile defense systems. Debka:

Israel requested the hook-up to the BMEWS for early warning to defend itself against Iranian missile attack. Tuesday, April 15, Iran’s deputy C-in-C Mohammad Reza Ashtiani threatened to eliminate Israel from “the scene of the universe” if it launches a military attack on the Islamic state.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report the system operates from three global centers – the US Thule Air Base in Greenland, where the 12th Space Warning Squadron is located; the Clear Air Force Station in Alaska and the British RAF long-range radar station at Fylingdales, Yorkshire, in England.

This is the third time Israel has been connected to the BMEWS. The first was in 1991 before the first Gulf War and the second in 2003 before the US invasion of Iraq. Then, Israel feared Iraqi missile attack, which indeed materialized in 1991. Now, US military sources interpret the request as signifying Israel’s sense of the need to prepare for an Iranian missile attack in the not-too-distant future.

Such an attack could develop from a US or Israeli strike against Iran, or any war situation involving Israel, Syria or Hizballah. Tehran might also stage a pre-emptive strike if early intelligence was received of an impending US or Israeli attack on Iran, Syria or Hizballah.

Commentary. The Belmont Club links Michael Totten's article on Fallujah, "Iraq's meanest city".

The results of the Anbar Awakening and the surge are plain to see. Since the Fifth Marine Regiment’s Third Battalion rotated into Fallujah in September 2007, not a single American has been wounded there, let alone killed. Hardly anyone even tries to start a fight now. A handful of people have taken potshots at Marines; one man threw a hand grenade in the neighborhood of Dubat; some fool blew himself up when the Iraqi police caught him planting an IED outside their station. Every attack has been ineffective. Of all Iraq’s cities, only nearby Ramadi has experienced so many dramatic changes in so short a time.

Go read it all.

They don't make stones like they used to.

Newfangled stones crumbling, says Kotel rabbi.